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Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force

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Author Info
Frank T. Denton
Christine H. Feaver
Byron G. Spencer

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Abstract

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust," have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual simulations, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different - if there had been no baby boom, or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden."

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File URL: http://economics.ca/cgi/jab?journal=cpp&view=v28n3/CPPv28n3p443.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Toronto Press in its journal Canadian Public Policy.

Volume (Year): 28 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 443-459
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Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:28:y:2002:i:3:p:443-459

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1989. "Macro-effects of Changes in Household Preferences for Children: Simulated History and Future Time Paths," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 165-88.
  3. McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Paul Beaudry & Thomas Lemieux & Daniel Parent, 2000. "What is Happening in the Youth Labour Market in Canada?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 59-83, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Dowd, Tim A & Monaco, Ralph M & Janoska, Jeffry J, 1998. "Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-Term Simulation Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 239-62, September.
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  1. Frank T Denton & Christine H Feaver & Byron G Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 146, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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