Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position
AbstractThis working paper provides further detail on the modelling behind Challenges and Choices – New Zealand’s Long-Term Fiscal Statement, published on 29 October 2009. Building on the first Statement of 2006, we construct two main fiscal scenarios over a 40- year horizon. The historic trends scenario allows historic and current spending and revenue settings to interact with changing demography. The sustainable debt scenario applies a fiscal constraint on non-benefit spending so that Crown net debt follows the Government’s medium-term fiscal targets. The modelling innovations introduced this time do not alter the basic structure and principles of the Long-term Fiscal Model, but instead provide insights into government spending: public sector productivity growth and the growth of the basket of services each person receives. These innovations enable us to illustrate the effects of tradeoffs between broad spending categories in a constrained fiscal environment. In the 2009 Statement, these policy changes are combined into three possible scenarios for obtaining a sustainable fiscal position. The paper also illustrates the sensitivity of the fiscal position to small changes in the demographic, macroeconomic and fiscal modelling assumptions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 10/01.
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
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Population; projections; social expenditure; fiscal costs; New Zealand;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
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- John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2013.
"Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?,"
Treasury Working Paper Series, New Zealand Treasury
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