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Government Debt and its Macroeconomic Determinants – An Empirical Investigation

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  • Swamy, Vighneswara

Abstract

In the context of rising government debt levels in advanced economies and the ongoing euro zone debt crisis, there has been a revival of academic and policy debate on the impact of growing government debt on economic growth. This data-rich study offers an econometric investigation of the macroeconomic determinants of government debt and answers the much-debated question – What factors influence the government debt in a sovereign country? The study provides analyses for economy groupings, political governance groupings and income groupings of countries in addition to the full sample. Panel Granger causality testing is employed to establish causality running from the determinants of debt. The results of the full sample analysis reveal that real GDP growth, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, inflation and population growth have negative effect on debt. Gross fixed capital formation, final consumption expenditure, and trade openness have positive effect on debt. The results for different country groupings bring out some interesting implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "Government Debt and its Macroeconomic Determinants – An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 64106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Chukwuebuka Bernard Azolibe, 2021. "Determinants of External Indebtedness in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries: What Macroeconomic and Socio-Economic Factors Matter?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 249-264, October.
    3. Zharku Lutfi, 2018. "(Un)Productive Use of Public Debt in Kosovo," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 97(2), pages 18-37, December.
    4. Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Faiz Masnan & Mohd Juraij Abd Rani & Zaharah Zainal Abidin & Abdul Rahim Ridzuan & Norreha Othman, 2023. "The Grim Cost of Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation: A Comprehensive Panel ARDL Study of Public Debt in the ASEAN-5 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Ngasamiaku, Wilhelm M. & Ngong'ho, Sende, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Public Debt in Tanzania: Empirical Evidence and lessons for Post COVID-19 Recovery," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(5), December.
    6. Carrera, Jorge & de la Vega, Pablo, 2021. "The impact of income inequality on public debt," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    7. Pratibha Saini & Krishna Muniyoor, 2021. "Revisiting The Debt–Growth Nexus: Evidence From India," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(231), pages 151-172, October –.
    8. Lerato Mothibi, 2019. "The impact of foreign debt and government debt on economic growth in South Africa," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912015, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    9. Panagiotis Pegkas, 2018. "The Effect of Government Debt and Other Determinants on Economic Growth: The Greek Experience," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, February.
    10. Amjad S. Qwader & Sulieman D. Aloshaibat, 2020. "Components of the Public Budget and their Effects on Public Debt in Jordan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 88-96.
    11. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH & Hanen OMRANE, 2017. "Macroeconomic determinants of public debt growth: A case study for Tunisia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(613), W), pages 161-168, Winter.
    12. Constance de Soyres & Anna Rogantini Picco & Miss Randa Sab, 2019. "Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?," IMF Working Papers 2019/037, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Attahir Babaji Abubakar, 2020. "Does fiscal tightening (loosening) reduce public debt?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 528-539, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Debt; economic growth; panel data; nonlinearity; country groupings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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