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Estimating New Zealand's Structural Budget Balance

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  • Oscar Parkyn

    ()
    (The Treasury)

Abstract

Existing methodologies for estimating a government’s structural budget balance are reviewed and applied to the case of New Zealand. Besides the conventional cyclical adjustment, an assessment is made of other possible non-structural elements to the budgetary position, including the terms of trade, asset prices and unbalanced growth. A key result is that the terms-of-trade boom, which began in the late 2000s, is associated with around 1% of GDP in tax revenues that may not be structural. Uncertainty surrounding cyclically-adjusted balance estimates is presented using fan charts.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2010/10-08/twp10-08.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 10/08.

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Length: 42
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:10/08

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Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
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Related research

Keywords: fiscal policy; business cycle; terms of trade; asset prices;

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References

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  1. Emmanuel De Veirman & Ashley Dunstan, 2008. "How do Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Interact? Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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Cited by:
  1. Oscar Parkyn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints," Treasury Working Paper Series, New Zealand Treasury 13/02, New Zealand Treasury.
  2. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "External imbalances and macroeconomic policy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 53-70, April.
  3. Philip R. Lane, 2011. "External Imbalances and Macroeconomic Policy in New Zealand," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series, IIIS iiisdp376, IIIS.
  4. Bruce White, 2013. "Macroeconomic Policy in New Zealand: From the Great Inflation to the Global Financial Crisis," Treasury Working Paper Series, New Zealand Treasury 13/30, New Zealand Treasury.

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