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An Introduction to the New Zealand Treasury Model

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  • Michael Ryan
  • Kam Leong Szeto

    ()
    (The Treasury)

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    Abstract

    The Treasury is the New Zealand government’s lead advisor on economic and financial issues. Part of this advice consists of providing the government with forecasts of economic and fiscal variables. Economic forecasts are important, not only as a basis for forecasts of tax revenue, but also in informing the government of the macroeconomic environment in which proposed fiscal policy settings will operate. The New Zealand Treasury Model (NZTM) is an important part of the economic forecasting process at the Treasury. This paper has three purposes. The first is to give readers an idea of the key features of NZTM. The second is to detail major changes to the model since the last published documentation of the model (Szeto, 2002). These model developments have enhanced NZTM to provide more detailed forecasts. Key changes include the disaggregation of deflators into the various expenditure GDP components, the introduction of consumption and capital goods imports into the model (rather than just treating them as intermediate imports) and the disaggregation of the inflation equation into tradable and non-tradable components. The final purpose of this paper is to outline briefly NZTM’s role in the Treasury’s forecasting process.

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    File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2009/09-02/twp09-02.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 09/02.

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    Length: 71
    Date of creation: Oct 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:09/02

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
    Phone: +64-4-472 2733
    Fax: +64-4-473 0982
    Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Computable general equilibrium model; New Zealand economy; forecasting;

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    1. Troy Matheson, 2005. "Factor model forecasts for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, 08.
    3. David Hargreaves & Hannah Kite & Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Modelling New Zealand inflation in a Phillips curve," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, September.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1974. "Tariffs and nontraded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-185, May.
    5. Alan King, 1998. "Uncovered interest parity: New Zealand' s post-deregulation experience," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 495-503.
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