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El Nino and world primary commodity prices: warm water or hot air?

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  • Allan D. Brunner

Abstract

This paper examines the historical effects of El Niño on world prices and economic activity. Although the primary focus is on world real non-oil primary commodity prices, the effects on G-7 consumer price inflation and GDP growth are also considered. This paper has several distinct advantages over previous studies. First, several econometric models are estimated using fairly broad measures of prices and economic activity. Second, the models include continuous measures of El Niño intensity (sea surface temperature and sea-level air pressure anomalies in the Pacific Ocean) rather than dummy variable measures. Finally, confidence intervals are constructed for all estimated effects of El Niño on world prices and economic activity. ; The analysis indicates that El Niño has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation surprise in El Niño, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, El Niño appears to account for over 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years. El Niño also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for about 10 to 15 percent of movements in those variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 608.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:608

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Keywords: Prices;

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  1. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-11, December.
  2. Richard M. Adams & Kelly J. Bryant & Bruce A. Mccarl & David M. Legler & James O'Brien & Andrew Solow & Rodney Weiher, 1995. "Value Of Improved Long-Range Weather Information," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 10-19, 07.
  3. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December.
  4. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
  5. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1988. "An inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-70, July.
  6. Maddala, G S, et al, 1997. "Estimation of Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 90-100, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Sebastian Sosa & Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: the Role of Climatic and External Shocks," IMF Working Papers 09/159, International Monetary Fund.
  2. LanFen Chu & Michael McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2011. "How Volatile is ENSO?," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 2011-21, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  3. Ubilava, David & Helmers, C Gustav, 2012. "Forecasting ENSO with a smooth transition autoregressive model," MPRA Paper 36890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ubilava, David & Holt, Matthew T., 2009. "Nonlinearities in the World Vegetable Oil Price System: El Nino Effects," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49360, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Lan-Fen Chu & M. McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2012. "How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?," KIER Working Papers 829, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Thanarak Laosuthi & David D. Selover, 2007. "Does El Nino Affect Business Cycles," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 21-42, Winter.
  7. Dadakas, Dimitrios & Jakus, Paul M., 1999. "El Nino/Southern Oscillation Effects On Farmland Values In The United States," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21572, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  8. Tack, Jesse B. & Ubilava, David, 2012. "The Effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on U.S. Corn Production and Downside Risk," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119785, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  9. Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 10/129, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Berry, Brian J.L. & Okulicz-Kozaryn, Adam, 2008. "Are there ENSO signals in the macroeconomy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 625-633, January.
  11. Rodrigo Avella, . "Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Jolejole-Foreman, Maria Christina & Mallory, Mindy L., 2011. "Analyzing Market Price Transmission, Government Intervention and Weather Shocks for Rice Market in the Philippines," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103163, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  13. Rodney Ramcharan, 2005. "How Big Are The Benefits of Economic Diversification?: Evidence from Earthquakes," IMF Working Papers 05/48, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Lan-Fen Chu & Michael McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2013. "How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-007/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  15. Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli & Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho, 2004. "Climate Forecasting And Emergency Policies Evidence Of Opportunities From Ceará, Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 118, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  16. Balvers, Ronald & Du, Ding & Zhao, Xiaobing, 2012. "The Adverse Impact of Gradual Temperature Change on Capital Investment," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124676, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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