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The Economic Impacts of Climate Change Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather

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Olivier Deschenes
Michael Greenstone

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Abstract

We thank the late David Bradford for initiating a conversation that motivated this paper. Our admiration for David’s brilliance as an economist was only exceeded by our admiration for him as a human being. We are grateful for the especially valuable criticisms from David Card and two anonymous referees. Hoyt Bleakley, Tim Conley, Tony Fisher, Michael Hanemann, Enrico Moretti, Marc Nerlove, and Wolfram Schlenker provided insightful comments. We are also grateful for comments from seminar participants at Maryland, Princeton, Yale, the NBER Environmental Economics Summer Institute, and the “Conference on Spatial and Social Interactions in Economics” at the University of California-Santa Barbara. Anand Dash, Elizabeth Greenwood, Barrett Kirwan, Nick Nagle, and William Young, provided outstanding research assistance. We are indebted to Shawn Bucholtz at the United States Department of Agriculture for generously generating weather data for this analysis from the Parameterelevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model. Finally, we acknowledge The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project and the Atmosphere Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research for access to the Transient Climate database, which we used to obtain regional climate change predictions. Greenstone acknowledges generous funding from the American Bar Foundation.

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Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 0601.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:mee:wpaper:0601

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  1. Michael Greenstone & Justin Gallagher, 2005. "Does Hazardous Waste Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market and the Superfund Program," NBER Working Papers 11790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Martin L. Weitzman, 2001. "Gamma Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 260-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-11, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D. & Mitchell, Glenn T., 2005. "Adjustment costs from environmental change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 468-495, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Stavins, Robert N., 2002. "The effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 561-581, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ekeland, Ivar & Heckman, James J. & Nesheim, Lars, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models," IZA Discussion Papers 853, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2000. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," NBER Working Papers 7831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Black, Dan A & Kniesner, Thomas J, 2003. " On the Measurement of Job Risk in Hedonic Wage Models," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 205-20, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Sandra E. Black, 1999. "Do Better Schools Matter? Parental Valuation Of Elementary Education," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 577-599, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kenneth Y. Chay & Michael Greenstone, 2005. "Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 376-424, April.
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  14. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Mundlak, Yair, 2001. "Production and supply," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kirwan, Barrett E., 2008. "The Incidence of U.S. Agricultural Subsidies on Farmland Rental Rates," Working Papers 42714, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Michael Greenstone & Justin Gallagher, 2006. "Does Hazardous Waste Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market and the Superfund Program," Working Papers 0620, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006. "Estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields: The importance of non-linear temperature effects," Discussion Papers 0607-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Orley Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann, 2006. "Using a Hedonic Model of Solar Radiation to Assess the Economic Effect of Climate Change: The Case of Mosel Valley Vineyards," NBER Working Papers 12380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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