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A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture

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  • Steven Van Passel

    (Hasselt University, Faculty of Business Economics, Centre for Environmental Sciences, Agoralaan, Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies)

  • Emanuele Massetti

    (Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Robert Mendelsohn

    (Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies)

Abstract

This research estimates the impact of climate on European agriculture using a continental scale Ricardian analysis. Data on climate, soil, geography and regional socio-economic characteristics were matched for 37 612 individual farms across the EU-15. Farmland values across Europe are sensitive to climate. Even with the adaptation captured by the Ricardian technique, farms in Southern Europe are predicted to suffer sizeable losses (8% -13% per degree Celsius) from warming. In contrast, agriculture in the rest of Europe is likely to see only mixed impacts. Increases (decreases) in rain will increase (decrease) average farm values by 3% per centiliter of precipitation. Aggregate impacts by 2100 vary depending on the climate model scenario from a loss of 8% in a mild scenario to a loss of 44% in a harsh scenario.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2012.83.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.83

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Keywords: Ricardian Analysis; Climate Change; European Agriculture; Climate Change Economics;

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  1. , 2011. "Estimating Ricardian Models With Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 17101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-11, December.
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