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Value Of Improved Long-Range Weather Information

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Author Info
Richard M. Adams
Kelly J. Bryant
Bruce A. Mccarl
David M. Legler
James O'Brien
Andrew Solow
Rodney Weiher

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Abstract

An important human welfare implication of climate involves effects of interannual variation in temperature and precipitation on agriculture. Year-to-year variations in U.S. climate result from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a quasi-periodic redistribution of heat and momentum in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The study described here represents a preliminary assessment of the value to the entire U.S. agricultural sector of improved ENSO forecasts in the southeastern United States. This interdisciplinary assessment combines data and models from meteorology, plant sciences, and economics under a value of information framework based on Bayesian decision theory. An economic model of the U.S. agricultural sector uses changes in yields for various ENSO phases to translate physical (yield) effects of ENSO changes into economic effects on producers and on domestic and foreign consumers. The value of perfect information to agriculture is approximately $145 million. The economic value of an imperfect forecast is $96 million. These results suggest that increases in forecast accuracy have substantial economic value to agriculture. Copyright 1995 Western Economic Association International.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00720.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 13 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 10-19
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Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:13:y:1995:i:3:p:10-19

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  1. Sedjo, Roger & Bergeron, Nancy, 1999. "The Impact of El Niño on Northeastern Forests: A Case Study on Maple Syrup Production," Discussion Papers dp-99-43, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  2. EECKHOUDT Louis & THOMAS Alban & TREICH Nicolas, 2006. "Correlated Risks and the Value of Information for Agricultural Producers," Working Papers 06.12.205, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  3. Macauley, Molly, 2006. "Ascribing Societal Benefit to Environmental Observations of the Earth from Space: The Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR)," Discussion Papers dp-06-09, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  4. Thanarak Laosuthi & David D. Selover, 2007. "Does El Nino Affect Business Cycles," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 21-42, Winter. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli & Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho, 2004. "Climate Forecasting And Emergency Policies Evidence Of Opportunities From Ceará, Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 118, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  6. Macauley, Molly, 2005. "The Value of Information: A Background Paper on Measuring the Contribution of Space-Derived Earth Science Data to National Resource Management," Discussion Papers dp-05-26, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  7. LanFen Chu & Michael McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2009. "How Volatile is ENSO?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-635, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Allan D. Brunner, 1998. "El Nino and world primary commodity prices: warm water or hot air?," International Finance Discussion Papers 608, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hill, Harvey S.J. & Park, Jaehong & Mjelde, James W. & Rosenthal, Wesley & Love, H. Alan & Fuller, Stephen W., 1998. "The Value Of El Nino Forecast Methods For The U.S. Winter Wheat Producers, Do They Differ?," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20906, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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