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Obtaining Lower And Upper Bounds On The Value Of Seasonal Climate Forecasts As A Function Of Risk Preferences


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  • Mjelde, James W.
  • Cochran, Mark J.
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    A methodological approach to obtain bounds on the value of information based on an inexact representation of the decision makerÂ’s utility function is presented. Stochastic dominance procedures are used to derive the bounds. These bounds provide more information than the single point estimates associated with traditional decision analysis approach to valuing information, in that classes of utility functions can be considered instead of one specific utility function. Empirical results for valuing seasonal climate forecasts illustrate that the type of management strategy given by the decision makerÂ’s prior knowledge interacts with the decision makerÂ’s risk preferences to determine the bounds.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Western Journal of Agricultural Economics.

    Volume (Year): 13 (1988)
    Issue (Month): 02 (December)

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32118

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    Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty;


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    1. Meyer, Jack, 1977. "Choice among distributions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 326-336, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Graham R. Marshall & Kevin A. Parton & G.L. Hammer, 1996. "Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions And The Value Of Seasonal Forecasts To A Dryland Wheat Grower," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(3), pages 211-233, December.
    2. World Bank, 2010. "Improving Water Management in Rainfed Agriculture : Issues and Options in Water-Constrained Production Systems," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13028, The World Bank.
    3. Nyangito, Hezron O. & Richardson, James W. & Mukhebi, Adrian W. & Zimmel, Peter & Namken, Jerry & Berry, Brian P., 1996. "Whole farm simulation analysis of economic impacts of East Coast Fever immunication strategies on mixed crop-livestock farms in Kenya," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-27.
    4. Petersen, Elizabeth H. & Fraser, Rob W., 2001. "An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide 125830, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Lau, Michael H. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Fuller, Stephen W. & Nixon, Clair J. & Herbst, Brian K., 2004. "Location Of A Mixalco Production Facility With Respect To Economic Viability," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20025, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).


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