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An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers

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  • Petersen, Elizabeth H.
  • Fraser, Rob W.

Abstract

Of the number of seasonal forecasting systems that have been developed of late, none are of practical benefit to Western Australian farmers. This study aims to improve the methodology for assessing the value of forecasting technology ex ante to its development, using the Merredin agricultural region of Western Australia as an illustration. Results suggest that a seasonal forecasting technology that provides a 30 per cent decrease in seasonal uncertainty increases annual profits by approximately five per cent. The accumulated annual benefit to farmers in the Merredin region (an area with 754 farm holdings over 35, 500 square kilometres of land) is approximately two million dollars. Hence, support is given for the development of seasonal forecasting techniques in Western Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Petersen, Elizabeth H. & Fraser, Rob W., 2001. "An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia 125830, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare01:125830
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.125830
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    2. Nelson, R. A. & Holzworth, D. P. & Hammer, G. L. & Hayman, P. T., 2002. "Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 393-414, December.
    3. Browne, Natalie & Kingwell, Ross & Behrendt, Ralph & Eckard, Richard, 2013. "The relative profitability of dairy, sheep, beef and grain farm enterprises in southeast Australia under selected rainfall and price scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 35-44.
    4. Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Mullen, John & Hayman, Peter, 2015. "Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in a state-contingent manner," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(1), January.
    5. Rubas, Debra J. & Mjelde, James W. & Love, H. Alan, 2003. "Wheat Trade And The Adoption Of Enso-Based Forecasts: Different Scenarios," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22160, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Carter, Chris & Crean, Jason & Kingwell, Ross S. & Hertzler, Greg, 2006. "Managing and Sharing the Risks of Drought in Australia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25319, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Danna Shen & Xiaofeng Zhao & Leyi Chai & Zhuanzhuan Guo & Chunxiang Leng, 2024. "Analysis of the agricultural economic value of a weather forecasting service based on a survey of peasant households in Chinese provinces," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, December.

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