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The Value of Rainfall Forecasts in the Rainfed Rice Areas of the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Abedullah

    (University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.)

  • Sushil Pandey

    (Social Sciences Division (SSD), International Rice Research Institute, (IRRI), Philippines.)

Abstract

The value of rainfall forecasts for rainfed rice production in the Philippines is estimated under the assumption that farmers adjust the quantities of fertilizer and labor if rainfall forecasts are available. Using a panel of 46 rice farmers in Tarlac, Philippines, a heteroskedastic production function with growing season rainfall (July to October) as one of the independent variables is estimated. The expected value of rainfall forecasts under the assumption of simultaneous adjustments in both fertilizer and labor was estimated to be slightly more than 1% of the net return from rice production. Taking the rainfed rice area in the Philippines of 1.2 million ha and a net return of $446/ha, the total value of the forecast was estimated to be $6.6 million per year. The expected value was also estimated under the assumption that, instead of forecasts of rainfall amounts for each year, forecasts made are for rainfall “above average”, “average”, or “below average”. The value of rainfall forecasts was found to be highest and ranged between 1.4%-4.5% of the net return when the forecast is ‘above average’. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) could help farmers by investing more of its resource forthe accurate prediction of ‘above average’ rainfall events.

Suggested Citation

  • Abedullah & Sushil Pandey, 2007. "The Value of Rainfall Forecasts in the Rainfed Rice Areas of the Philippines," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 69-81, Jul-Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:12:y:2007:i:2:p:69-81
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Mina, Christian D. & Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Reyes, Celia M., 2010. "Incorporating Regional Rice Production Models in a Simulation Model of Rice Importation: a Discrete Stochastic Programming Approach," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2009 Vol. XXXVI No. 1, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Mina, Christian D. & Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Incorporating Regional Rice Production Models in Rice Importation Simulation Model: a Stochastic Programming Approach," Discussion Papers DP 2009-28, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    3. de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Hilario, Flaviana & Ortega, Daisy & Hayman, Peter & Alexander, Bronya, 2010. "El Nino Southern Oscillation in the Philippines: Impacts, Forecasts, and Risk Management," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2009 Vol. XXXVI No. 1, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. Pandey, Sushil & Bhandari, Humnath & Ding, Shijun & Prapertchob, Preeda & Sharan, Ramesh & Naik, Dibakar & Taunk, Sudhir K. & Sastri, Asras, 2006. "Coping with Drought in Rice Farming in Asia: Insights from a Cross-Country Comparative Study," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25553, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Sushil Pandey & Humnath Bhandari & Shijun Ding & Preeda Prapertchob & Ramesh Sharan & Dibakar Naik & Sudhir K. Taunk & Asras Sastri, 2007. "Coping with drought in rice farming in Asia: insights from a cross‐country comparative study," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 213-224, December.

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