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Farm Planning under Uncertainty: A Review of Alternative Programming Models

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  • Hardaker, J. Brian
  • Pandey, Sushil
  • Patten, Louise H.
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    Abstract

    The complexity of modelling risk in farming systems is explained and the artistic nature of the task noted. A brief outline is presented of an appropriate conceptual framework, drawing attention to the merits of stochastic efficiency criteria for analysis of systems when risk preferences of individual farmers are unavailable. A distinction is drawn between planning problems with and without embedded risk. The merits of 'utility efficient' (UE) programming are explained. Extensions of programming models, including UE formulations, to embedded risk using discrete stochastic programming are reviewed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the importance of correctly understanding the way risk impacts upon the target farming system, and then of formulating a programming model appropriate to the case.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics.

    Volume (Year): 59 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 01 (April)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12460

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    Keywords: Farm Management;

    References

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    1. Levy, Haim & Hanoch, Giora, 1970. "Relative Effectiveness of Efficiency Criteria for Portfolio Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 63-76, March.
    2. J. Brian Hardaker & Louise H. Patten & David J. Pannell, 1988. "Utility‐Efficient Programming For Whole‐Farm Planning," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 32(2-3), pages 88-97, 08-12.
    3. K. D. Cocks, 1968. "Discrete Stochastic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 72-79, September.
    4. Meyer, Jack, 1977. "Second Degree Stochastic Dominance with Respect to a Function," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 477-87, June.
    5. Okunev, John & Dillon, John L., 1988. "A Linear Programming Algorithm for Determining Mean-Gini Efficient Farm Plans," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(3), November.
    6. Buccola, Steven T. & Subaei, Abdelbagi, 1984. "Mean-Gini Analysis, Stochastic Efficiency And Weak Risk Aversion," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 28(02-03).
    7. B. Curtis Eaves, 1971. "On Quadratic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 698-711, July.
    8. Okunev, John & Dillon, John L., 1988. "A linear programming algorithm for determining mean-Gini efficient farm plans," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 273-285, November.
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