This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Robert A Buckle
Kunhong Kim
Heather Kirkham
Nathan McLellan
Jared Sharma () (The Treasury)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper develops a new open economy structural VAR model of the New Zealand economy. The model adopts techniques introduced by Cushman and Zha (1997) and Dungey and Pagan (2000) to identify international and domestic shocks and dynamic responses to these shocks in a small open economy. The international variables are block exogenous and the model includes restrictions on contemporaneous and lagged variables. Novel features include the introduction of an expanded set of domestic financial variables not captured in previous New Zealand VAR models, the use of a forward looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy, and the introduction of a climate variable to capture the impact of climatic conditions on the business cycle. Key results to emerge are the significant influence of international variables on the New Zealand business cycle, the importance of separately identifying import price and export price shocks, and the significant influence of climate.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2002/02-26/twp02-26.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 02/26.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/26

Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Geraldine Bruin).

Related research
Keywords: Open economy structural VAR models business cycles climate commodity prices international linkages financial conditions.

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  2. Hansen, Eric & Hutchison, Michael M, 1997. "Exchange Rates, Non-traded Goods and the Terms of Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 43-67, February.
    Other versions:
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Huh, Hyeon-Seung, 1999. "How Well Does the Mundell-Fleming Model Fit Australian Data since the Collapse of Bretton Woods?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 397-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ursprung, Heinrich W, 1984. "Structural Balance of Trade Deficits in a Small Open Economy with Exogenous Capital Flows: A Monetary Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(171), pages 326-39, December.
  12. Wells, Graeme & Evans, Lewis, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(172), pages 421-35, March.
  13. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  14. R.W. Bailey & V.B. Hall & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1980. "A Model of Output, Employment, Capital Formation and Inflation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 552, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
  16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kelly R Eckhold, 1998. "Determinants of New Zealand bond yields," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  19. Olivier Blanchard, 2000. "What Do We Know About Macroeconomics That Fisher And Wicksell Did Not?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1375-1409, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. repec:fth:bfdipa:18/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Kim, Kunhong & Buckle, R A & Hall, V B, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-73, March.
  24. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-17, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Tim Hampton, 2001. "How much do import price shocks matter for consumer prices?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  26. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Huang, Angela & Margaritis, Dimitri & Mayes, David, 2001. "Monetary policy rules in practice: Evidence from New Zealand," Research Discussion Papers 18/2001, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  28. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  29. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  31. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Viv B Hall & C. John McDermott, 2005. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?," Urban/Regional 0509013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Iris Claus & Aaron Gill & Boram Lee & Nathan McLellan, 2006. "An empirical investigation of fiscal policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/08, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 08/100, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Julia Hall & Grant M Scobie, 2006. "The Role of R&D in Productivity Growth: The Case of Agriculture in New Zealand: 1927 to 2001," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/01, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philip Borkin, 2006. "Past, Present and Future Developments in New Zealand’s Terms of Trade," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/09, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alfred A Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2008. "Water, Water Somewhere: The Value of Water in a Drought-Prone Farming Region," Working Papers 08_10, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Aaron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2008. "Some benefits of monetary policy transparency in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Thomas A Lubik, 2005. "A Simple, Structural, and Empirical Model of the Antipodean Transmission Mechanism," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  11. Helmut Franken & Guillermo Le Fort & Eric Parrado, 2005. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Shock Resilience in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 331, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Want to help out with this project? Look for volunteer opportunities.

This page was last updated on 2008-11-13.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.