A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle
AbstractThis paper develops a new open economy structural VAR model of the New Zealand economy. The model adopts techniques introduced by Cushman and Zha (1997) and Dungey and Pagan (2000) to identify international and domestic shocks and dynamic responses to these shocks in a small open economy. The international variables are block exogenous and the model includes restrictions on contemporaneous and lagged variables. Novel features include the introduction of an expanded set of domestic financial variables not captured in previous New Zealand VAR models, the use of a forward looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy, and the introduction of a climate variable to capture the impact of climatic conditions on the business cycle. Key results to emerge are the significant influence of international variables on the New Zealand business cycle, the importance of separately identifying import price and export price shocks, and the significant influence of climate.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 02/26.
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC
Open economy; structural VAR models; business cycles; climate; commodity prices; international linkages; financial conditions.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-12-17 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
- Gali, Jordi, 1992.
"How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gali's QJE 1992 results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00063, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986.
"Are Business Cycles All Alike?,"
in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ursprung, Heinrich W, 1984. "Structural Balance of Trade Deficits in a Small Open Economy with Exogenous Capital Flows: A Monetary Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(171), pages 326-39, December.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2000.
"What do we know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell did not?,"
NBER Working Papers
7550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2000. "What Do We Know About Macroeconomics That Fisher And Wicksell Did Not?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1375-1409, November.
- Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Eric Hansen & Michael Hutchison, 1995.
"Exchange rates, non-traded goods and the terms-of-trade: an empirical application for New Zealand,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
95-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hansen, Eric & Hutchison, Michael M, 1997. "Exchange Rates, Non-traded Goods and the Terms of Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 43-67, February.
- Eric Hansen & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Exchange Rates, Non-Traded Goods and the Terms-of-Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-11, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance,"
497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, 08.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988.
"Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
- Wells, Graeme & Evans, Lewis, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(172), pages 421-35, March.
- Iris Claus, 2003. "Estimating potential output for New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 751-760.
- Huang, Angela & Margaritis, Dimitri & Mayes, David, 2001. "Monetary policy rules in practice: Evidence from New Zealand," Research Discussion Papers 18/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
- repec:fth:bfdipa:18/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
- David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kelly R Eckhold, 1998. "Determinants of New Zealand bond yields," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Selover, David D & Round, David K, 1995. "Business Cycle Transmission between Australia and New Zealand: A Vector Autoregression Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(65), pages 218-43, December.
- Kim, Kunhong & Buckle, R A & Hall, V B, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-73, March.
- Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Faust, Jon, 1998.
"The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Faust 1998 paper on semi-structural VAR," Statistical Software Components RTZ00178, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Paul Conway, 1998. "Macroeconomic variability in New Zealand: An SVAR study," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 161-186.
- Hyeon-Seung Huh, 1999. "How well does the Mundell-Fleming model fit Australian data since the collapse of Bretton Woods?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 397-407.
- Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Tim Hampton, 2001. "How much do import price shocks matter for consumer prices?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
- Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-17, May.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, June.
- R.W. Bailey & V.B. Hall & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1980. "A Model of Output, Employment, Capital Formation and Inflation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 552, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web and Publishing Team, The Treasury).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.