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Measurement of Business Cycles

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  • Don Harding
  • Adrian Pagan

Abstract

We describe different ways of measuring the business cycle. Insti- tutions such as the NBER, OECD and IMF do this through locating the turning points in series taken to represent the aggregate level of economic activity. The turning points are determined according to rules that either come from a parametric model or are non-parametric. Once located information can be extracted on cycle characteristics. We also distinguish cases where a single or multiple series are used to represent the level of activity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 966.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:966

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References

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  1. Lucrezia Reichlin & Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi, 2001. "Coincident and leading indicators for the Euro area," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10137, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
  3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  4. Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  6. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
  7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  8. Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  10. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  13. Ilse Mintz, 1972. "Dating American Growth Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect Vol 1: The Business Cycle Today, pages 39-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Svatopluk Kapounek & Jitka Pomenkova, 2012. "The Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria in the Context of Financial Crisis: Evidence from Time-Frequency Domain Analysis," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2012-31, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
  3. Ullrich Heilemann & Roland Schuhr, 2008. "On the Evolution of German Business Cycles 1958-2004 Results of a Dynamic Linear Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(1), pages 84-109, February.
  4. Tatiana Cesaroni & Louis Maccini & Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Business cycle volatility and inventories behavior:new evidence for the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 108, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  5. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2010. "Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 16-31, December.
  8. Svatopluk Kapounek & Jitka Pomenkova, 2012. "Spurious synchronization of business cycles: Dynamic correlation analysis of V4 countries," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2012-22, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

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