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Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Dumitru, Ionut

    (Academy of the Economic Studies of Bucharest; Raiffeisen Bank Romania)

  • Dumitru, Ionela

    (Academy of the Economic Studies Bucharest)

Abstract

This paper assesses the degree of readiness of New Member States (NMS) of the EU, including Romania, to adopt euro, mainly based on an optimal currency area (OCA) criterium. Using three consensus measures of output gap based on revisions of the estimated output gaps computed by 5 filtering techniques and a benchmark method based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) we estimated the business cycle correlation between NMS and eurozone. Our findings suggest that the correlation of the business cycle in the case of Romania is one of the lowest among NMS, although it increased tremendously in the last years. The main conclusion of our paper is the fact that Romania, as well as some other NMS countries still need time to progress on the real convergence criteria in order to adopt euro without major costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2010. "Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 16-31, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:4:p:16-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sofia Gouveia, 2014. "Business cycle correlation between the Euro area and the Balkan countries," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 33-49, April.
    2. Savoiu, Gheorghe & Dinu, Vasile & Ciuca, Suzana, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment based on Country Risk and other Macroconomic Factors. Econometric Models for Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 39-61, March.
    3. Tudor Mugurel Aursulesei & Liviu - George Maha, 2020. "Dysfunctions Of The European Monetary Union," Junior Scientific Researcher, SC Research Publishing SRL, vol. 6(1), pages 82-91, May.
    4. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
    5. Grecu Robert-Adrian, 2022. "Synchronization of Business Cycles in European Union Countries," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 217-228, August.
    6. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2163-2173.
    7. Iancu, Aurel, 2014. "Financial Instability, Cycles and the Role of Institutions," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 141007, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    OCA; output gap; business cycle synchronization; euro adoption; convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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