Business Cycles in Emerging market Economies: A New View of the Stylised Facts
AbstractThis paper builds on an earlier work in business cycle theory - explicitly in the classical cycle tradition of Burns and Mitchell (1946) and the more recent work by Harding and Pagan (e.g.: 2002a; 2005b; 2005a) - to identify and analyse business cycles in emerging market economies. The goal is to revisit the work of for example Agénor, McDermott and Prasad (2000), whom have established a set of stylised facts for business cycle fluctuations in developing countries. Agénor, et. al. (2000) established these stylised facts using the presently standard method of analysing the features of serially correlated deviations from trends (idenified with statistical techniques such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter) in certain macroeconomic time series, including real GDP, the price level, and components of final demand. The alternative method, implemented in this paper, uses an algorithm of Bry and Boschan (1971), and the recent work of Harding and Pagan to identify the various stylised facts regarding the duration, steepness, amplitude and concordance of these fluctuations in emerging market economies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02/2006.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
business cycles; turning points; emerging market economies; quantitative analysis of business cycles; time series econometrics; regression with binary variables;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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