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Business Cycles in Emerging market Economies: A New View of the Stylised Facts

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  • Stan du Plessis

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

Abstract

This paper builds on an earlier work in business cycle theory - explicitly in the classical cycle tradition of Burns and Mitchell (1946) and the more recent work by Harding and Pagan (e.g.: 2002a; 2005b; 2005a) - to identify and analyse business cycles in emerging market economies. The goal is to revisit the work of for example Agénor, McDermott and Prasad (2000), whom have established a set of stylised facts for business cycle fluctuations in developing countries. Agénor, et. al. (2000) established these stylised facts using the presently standard method of analysing the features of serially correlated deviations from trends (idenified with statistical techniques such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter) in certain macroeconomic time series, including real GDP, the price level, and components of final demand. The alternative method, implemented in this paper, uses an algorithm of Bry and Boschan (1971), and the recent work of Harding and Pagan to identify the various stylised facts regarding the duration, steepness, amplitude and concordance of these fluctuations in emerging market economies.

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File URL: http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za/wpapers/2006/wp022006/wp-02-2006.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02/2006.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers16

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Keywords: business cycles; turning points; emerging market economies; quantitative analysis of business cycles; time series econometrics; regression with binary variables;

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References

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  1. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  3. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Marco Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2003. "Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy," IMF Working Papers 03/246, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Alan S. Blinder & Stanley Fischer, 1979. "Inventories, Rational Expectations, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Bulir, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2001. "How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and What are the Policy Implications?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
  11. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.
  13. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 6948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  15. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  16. Michel A. Robe & Stephane Pallage, 2000. "Foreign Aid And The Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 107, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  18. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
  19. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  2. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Daniel Titelman & Pablo Carvallo, 2013. "Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_749, Levy Economics Institute.
  3. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird´s Eye View," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 585, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Leon du Toit, 2009. "Economic Crises, Stabilisation Policy and Output in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 20/2009, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  6. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  7. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Marketes: A Bird's Eye View," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 55-84, August.

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