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Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle

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Author Info
Vincent, BODART () (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN () (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA () (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

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Abstract

This paper investigates the Belgian business cycle. It establishes a chronology of cycles over the period 1980-2002 using real GDP, which it suggests can be regarded as a reference cycle. It then uses this chronology to evaluate the performance of alternative business cycle indicators in terms of their ability to predict business cycle turning points. We also investigate to what extent these indicators help improve forecasting the Belgian GDP growth.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper with number 2003018.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 31 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2003018

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Postal: Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)
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Keywords: Dating

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  12. Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand, 1999. "Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 1999018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  13. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  14. Allan P. Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "What Is A Recession?: A Reprise," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 095, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
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