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Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies

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  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Abstract

The appropriately selected leading indicators can substantially improve the forecasting of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Using the novel methodology of the dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching and the data for the three largest European economies (France, Germany, and UK) we construct a composite leading indicator (CLI) and a composite coincident indicator (CCI) as well as corresponding recession probabilities. We estimate also a rival model of the Markov-switching VAR in order to see, which of the two models brings better outcomes. The recession data derived from these models are compared to three reference chronologies: those of OECD and ECRI (growth cycles) and those obtained with quarterly Bry-Boschan procedure (classical cycles). Dynamic bi-factor model and MSVAR appear to predict the cyclical turning points equally well without systematic superiority of one model over another.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 554, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp554
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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Erik Klär, 2007. "Dem Konjunkturzyklus auf der Spur: zur Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 8-20.
    2. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: An MS-DFM approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 481-538, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting turning points; Composite coincident indicator; Composite leading indicator; Dynamic bi-factor model; Markov switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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