Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies
AbstractThe appropriately selected leading indicators can substantially improve the forecasting of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Using the novel methodology of the dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching and the data for three largest European economies (France, Germany, and UK) we construct composite leading indicator (CLI) and composite coincident indicator (CCI) as well as corresponding recession probabilities. We estimate also a rival model of the Markov-switching VAR in order to see, which of the two models brings better outcomes. The recession dates derived from these models are compared to three reference chronologies: those of OECD and ECRI (growth cycles) and those obtained with quarterly Bry-Boschan procedure (classical cycles). Dynamic bi-factor model and MSVAR appear to predict the cyclical turning points equally well without systematic superiority of one model over another
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Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
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Forecasting turning points; composite;
Other versions of this item:
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 554, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-04-09 (Econometrics)
- NEP-EEC-2007-04-09 (European Economics)
- NEP-ETS-2007-04-09 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2007-04-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-04-09 (Macroeconomics)
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