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Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge

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  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Vincent Bodart

Abstract

[fre] Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock- Watson : une application à l'économie belge par Vincent Bodart et Bertrand Candelon . Au cours de différents travaux récents, Stock et Watson (1989, 1991, 1993) ont développé une méthodologie nouvelle de construction d'indicateurs de conjoncture. Bien que ces travaux constituent un apport considérable pour l'analyse des cycles économiques, ceux-ci ont curieusement fait l'objet de peu d'applications empiriques. Dans cet article, nous présentons une application de la méthodologie de Stock- Watson au cas belge. Nous montrons que l'indicateur synthétique de conjoncture que nous obtenons dispose de propriétés remarquables et offre une vision du cycle économique belge nettement différente de celle mise en évidence par des indicateurs de conjoncture plus traditionnels. [eng] Understanding the Economy Using the Stock- Watson Method: an Application to the Belgian . Economy by Vincent Bodart and Bertrand Candelon . In recent studies, Stock and Watson (1989, 1991 and 1993) developed a new methodology for constructing economic indicators. Although this work has made a considerable contribution to business cycle analysis, it has strangely enough rarely been used for empirical applications. In this paper, we apply Stock- Watson' s methodology to Belgium. We show that the synthetic economic indicator obtained has remarkable properties and provides an unmistakably different view of the Belgian business cycle to that found by the more classic economic indicators.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.2000.6134
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File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6134/ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6134.pdf?mode=light
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 146 (2000)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 141-153

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6134

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2000.6134
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
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Cited by:
  1. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.

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