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Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?

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  • Valerie Cerra

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Sweta Chaman Saxena

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all the countries studied.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 52 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 1-23

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:52:y:2005:i:1:p:1-23

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  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
  4. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Asia Crisis," IMF Working Papers 99/138, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  10. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  11. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, June.
  12. Kalpana Kochhar & Prakash Loungani & Mark R. Stone, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/128, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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