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Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

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  • Ms. Valerie Cerra
  • Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all of the countries studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2003. "Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2003/048, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/048
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; growth rate; Asia; Crisis; Business Cycles; Recovery; Hong Kong; Indonesia; Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; output loss; x-axis data label; recession state; crisis-driven recession; recession phase; Consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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