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The East Asian Crisis: Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons

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Listed:
  • Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
  • Mr. Prakash Loungani
  • Mr. Mark R. Stone

Abstract

This paper reviews macroeconomic developments during the first year of the crisis in east Asia and draws some preliminary policy lessons. The crisis is rooted in the interaction of large capital inflows and weak private and public sector governance. At the same time, macroeconomic adjustment in these countries has resulted in some surprising outcomes, including severe economic contractions, low inflation, and rapid external adjustment. The lessons for crisis resolution include the importance of tight monetary policy early on for exchange rate stabilization, flexible fiscal policy, and comprehensive structural reform. Crises are avoided by prudent macroeconomic policies, diligent bank supervision, transparent data dissemination, strong governance, and forward-looking policymaking, even in good times.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis: Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1998/128, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/128
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    Cited by:

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    2. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    3. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2015. "Two Tales of Adjustment: East Asian Lessons for European Growth," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 164-196, May.
    4. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, April.
    5. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2007. "Is Sterilized Intervention Effective? New International Evidence," Working Papers 142007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Donghyun Park & Junggun Oh, 2005. "Korea's Post-Crisis Monetary Policy Reforms," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 707-731.
    7. Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 59-85.
    8. Gerardo Alfonso Perez, 2021. "Short-Term Event-Driven Analysis of the South-East Asia Financial Crisis: A Stock Market Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-30, October.
    9. Nur Keyder, 2003. "The Story of a Stabilization Effort: Turkey (2000-2002)," ERC Working Papers 0305, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2003.
    10. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2002. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 92-112, February.
    11. repec:rim:rimwps:12-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Duncan, Ronald C. & Yang, Yongzheng, 2000. "The impact of the Asian Crisis on Australia's primary exports: why it wasn't so bad," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(3), pages 1-23.
    13. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia’s Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February.
    14. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani, 2001. "Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q IV), pages 38-52.
    15. Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Reilly, Catherine & Shen, Jian-Guang, . "The Long March to Asia. Investing in Asia After the Crisis," ETLA B, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 155.
    16. Wenjun Xue & Jason E. Taylor, 2018. "Recovery from the Asian financial crisis: the importance of non‐monetary financial factors," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 32(2), pages 27-41, November.
    17. Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: An Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 2002/170, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2000/060, International Monetary Fund.

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