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Two Tales of Adjustment: East Asian Lessons for European Growth

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  • Anusha Chari
  • Peter Blair Henry

Abstract

Paths into the Asian Crisis of 1997-98 and the recent global financial crisis were similar, but the roads out could not be more different. Common wisdom has it that on impact Asia endured fiscal austerity imposed by the IMF whereas the IMF recommended stimulus in the case of the advanced nations at the epicenter of the crisis in 2008-09. While the IMF did recommend different policies to begin with, the fiscal adjustment in Asia was far more modest than is commonly known and the switch from stimulus to austerity in Europe was quite abrupt. The difference in fiscal stance helps explain the difference in the post-crisis paths of output and employment in the two regions.

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Paper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 14-04.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:ste:nystbu:14-04

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Postal: New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics, 44 West 4th Street, New York, NY 10012-1126
Phone: (212) 998-0860
Fax: (212) 995-4218
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/economics/
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  1. Gernot Müller & André Meier & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 12/150, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9646, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The time for austerity: estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 2013-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Henry, Peter B. & Miller, Conrad, 2008. "Institutions versus Policies: A Tale of Two Islands," Research Papers 2012, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  6. Kalpana Kochhar & Prakash Loungani & Mark R. Stone, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/128, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
  8. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565, October.
  9. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April.
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