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What's a Recession, Anyway?

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  • Edward E. Leamer

Abstract

Monthly US data on payroll employment, civilian employment, industrial production and the unemployment rate are used to define a recession-dating algorithm that nearly perfectly reproduces the NBER official peak and trough dates. The only substantial point of disagreement is with respect to the NBER November 1973 peak. The algorithm prefers September 1974. In addition, this algorithm indicates that the data through June 2008 do not yet exceed the recession threshold, and will do so only if things get much worse.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14221.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14221

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  1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.
  2. J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Papers 887, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  5. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  2. Switzer, Lorne N., 2010. "The behaviour of small cap vs. large cap stocks in recessions and recoveries: Empirical evidence for the United States and Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 332-346, December.
  3. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08," CQER Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Philip Cross & Philippe Bergevin, 2012. "Turning Points: Business Cycles in Canada Since 1926," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 366, October.
  6. Vasyl Golosnoy & Jens Hogrefe, 2009. "Sequential Methodology for Signaling Business Cycle Turning Points," Kiel Working Papers 1528, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Kevin Lee & Anthony Garratt & Kalvinder Shields, 2009. "Decision Making in hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One?," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/22, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  8. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, 2011. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 008328, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Antipa, P. & Schalck, C., 2009. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on Residential Investment in France," Working papers 270, Banque de France.

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