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What is a recession?: A reprise

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  • Allan Layton
  • Anirvan Banerji

Abstract

This paper draws its title from a paper written over 35 years ago by Geoffrey H. Moore (1967). Why the need for a reprise? First, there would appear currently to be somewhat diverging views as to what properly constitutes a recession. Second, largely as a result of this, in many countries other than the US, there does not exist a single, widely accepted business cycle chronology for the country in question. This paper will argue that, in addition to output, there are other important aspects to aggregate economic activity that need to be taken into account in determining the business cycle, viz., income, sales and employment. As such, our perspective would seem to be at odds with the apparent position taken by some other recent commentators on this issue who argue that GDP is all that is needed to represent a country's business cycle. We will also argue against using the currently popular 'two negative quarterly growth rate' rule in dating the onset of a recession.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 16 ()
Pages: 1789-1797

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:16:p:1789-1797

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Allan P. Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "Dating the Indian Business Cycle: Is Output All That Counts?," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 231-240, January.
  3. repec:sae:niesru:v:161:y::i:1:p:84-89 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Theodore M. Crone, 2000. "A new look at economic indexes for the states in the Third District," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-14.
  5. Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
  6. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Crossley & Hamish Low & Cormac O'Dea, 2012. "Household consumption through recent recessions," IFS Working Papers W12/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Adél Bosch & Franz Ruch, 2012. "An alternative business cycle dating procedure for South Africa," Working Papers 267, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  3. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  4. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua, 2010. "Synchronisation of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, May.
  5. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2011. "Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach," Working Papers id:4391, eSocialSciences.
  6. Conor Keegan & Steve Thomas & Charles Normand & Conceição Portela, 2013. "Measuring recession severity and its impact on healthcare expenditure," International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 139-155, June.
  7. Kathleen Goffey & Andrew Worthington, 2002. "Motor Vehicle Usage Patterns in Australia: A Comparative Analysis of Driver, Vehicle & Purpose Characteristics for Household & Freight Travel," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 117, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  8. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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