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A Monthly Indicator of GDP

Author

Listed:
  • Salazar, Eduardo
  • Smith, Richard
  • Weale, Martin
  • Wright, Stephen

Abstract

Cyclical indicators have hitherto been used as a means of describing the state of the economy on a month by month basis. However, they have proved unsatisfactory for a number of reasons and are now no longer published. This paper summarises a means of producing monthly estimates of GDP from existing monthly data. The technique can be used to extrapolate as well as to interpolate monthly data and therefore provides an indicator of the current state of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Salazar, Eduardo & Smith, Richard & Weale, Martin & Wright, Stephen, 1997. "A Monthly Indicator of GDP," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 161, pages 84-89, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:161:y:1997:i::p:84-89_6
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    Cited by:

    1. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    2. Paul Labonne & Martin Weale, 2020. "Temporal disaggregation of overlapping noisy quarterly data: estimation of monthly output from UK value‐added tax data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1211-1230, June.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1782 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Allan Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2003. "What is a recession?: A reprise," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1789-1797.
    5. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Ana Lamo, 2004. "Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 247-265.
    6. Françoise Charpin & Catherine Mathieu, 2004. "Un indicateur de croissance à court terme au Royaume-Uni," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 89(2), pages 231-251.
    7. Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2009. "Uk Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality And Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 24-44, February.
    8. Klassen, Mark & Anthony, Brandon P., 2019. "The effects of recreational cannabis legalization on forest management and conservation efforts in U.S. national forests in the Pacific Northwest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 39-48.
    9. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Ana Lamo, 2004. "Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 247-265.
    10. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2006. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 283-310, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1782 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1782 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tena, Juan de Dios & Tremayne, A.R., 2009. "Modelling monetary transmission in UK manufacturing industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1066, September.
    14. Mateusz Pipień & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2015. "Szacunki kwartalnego PKB w polskich województwach," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 145-169.
    15. Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios & Otranto, Edoardo, 2006. "Modelling the discrete and infrequent official interest rate change in the UK," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws062007, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Mateusz Pipień & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2015. "Quarterly estimates of regional GDP in Poland – application of statistical inference of functions of parameters," NBP Working Papers 219, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    17. Paul Labonne, 2020. "Capturing GDP nowcast uncertainty in real time," Papers 2012.02601, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    18. Juan de Dios Tena, 2006. "The Impact of Non-financial Factors on Heterogeneous Sectoral Price and Output," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 52(3), pages 19-29.

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