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Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices

Author

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  • Cyrille Lenoel
  • Garry Young

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a survey that identifies real-time turning point indicators published by international statistical and economic institutions. It reports the evidence on past and present indicators used, the methodology underlying their construction and the way the indicators are presented. We find that business and consumer surveys are the most popular source of data and composite indicators like diffusion or first component are the most popular types of indicators. The use of novel databases, big data and machine learning has been limited so far but has a promising future.

Suggested Citation

  • Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2020-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; turning points; recession; leading indicator; composite indicator; diffusion index; bridge model; Markow-switching model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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