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An Assessment of OECD and UK Leading Indicators

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  • Martin Weale

Abstract

Leading indicators are produced by both the OECD and the UK Office of National Statistics as tools for predicting turning points of the business cycle. An assessment on the basis of performance at turning points is frustrated by their scarcity. It is found that the indicators generally have significant (but not good) ability to predict changes in the direction of the variable they are intended to lead. When they are included in VAR models the standard error of quarter on quarter changes is generally lower than when pure autoregressions are used. However, the forecasting power of such equations is poor, and the general conclusion is that such indicators are not good forecasting tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Weale, 1996. "An Assessment of OECD and UK Leading Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 156(1), pages 63-71, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:156:y:1996:i:1:p:63-71
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    Cited by:

    1. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).

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