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Modelling The Discrete And Infrequent Official Interest Rate Change In The Uk

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Author Info
Juan de Dios Tena ()
Edoardo Otranto ()

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Abstract

This paper is an empirical analysis of the manner in which official interest rates are determined by the Bank of England. We use a nonlinear framework that allow for the separate study of factors affecting the magnitude of positive and negative interest rate changes as well as their probabilities. Using this approach, new kinds of monetary shocks are defined and used to evaluate their impact on the UK economy. Among them, unanticipated negative interest rate changes are especially important. The model generalizes previous approaches in the literature and provides a rich methodology to understand central banks’ decisions and their consequences.

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws062007.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws062007

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cukierman, A., 1999. "The Inflation Bias Result Revisited," Papers 38-99, Tel Aviv.
  3. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2002. "Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 2002-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Edoardo Otranto & Giampiero Gallo, 2002. "A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach To Detect The Number Of Regimes In Markov Switching Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 477-496. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Alex Cukierman & Stefan Gerlach, 2003. "The inflation bias revisited: theory and some international evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 541-565, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. J. de Dios Tena & Edoardo Otranto, 2008. "A Realistic Model for Official Interest Rates," Working Paper CRENoS 200802, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
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