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Dating the ‘world business cycle’

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  • Anirvan Banerji
  • Allan P. Layton
  • Lakshman Achuthan

Abstract

By mid-2008 the world was witnessing the unfolding of a relatively rare macroeconomic phenomenon, namely, the onset of what one might call a synchronized international -- or ‘world’ -- recession. But what exactly is a ‘synchronized world recession’? This article proposes a practical definition of a ‘synchronized world recession’ and a putative set of historical post-WWII dates for a ‘world business cycle chronology’. Further, using a constructed ‘world coincident index of economic indicators’ and an associated ‘world leading index of economic indicators’, this article demonstrates that evidence was available from early in the second half of 2007 that the world was indeed sliding inexorably towards its fourth synchronized world recession since WWII (although, interestingly, already its second of the twenty-first century!).

Suggested Citation

  • Anirvan Banerji & Allan P. Layton & Lakshman Achuthan, 2012. "Dating the ‘world business cycle’," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2051-2063, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:16:p:2051-2063
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.558479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Banerji, Anirvan & Hiris, Lorene, 2001. "A framework for measuring international business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 333-348.
    2. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Allan Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2003. "What is a recession?: A reprise," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1789-1797.
    4. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2013. "Earth Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14673.
    2. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua, 2010. "Synchronisation of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, May.
    3. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Layton, Allan, 2015. "Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: A decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 25-35.

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