The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices
AbstractThe need to understand the factors that influence the behavior of commodity prices has taken on a special urgency in recent years, as nonoil real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s. Since their short-lived recovery in 1984, real non-oil commodity prices have fallen by about 45 percent, translating into a sharp deterioration in the terms of trade for most commodity-dependent exporters. As Chart 1 illustrates, in 1992 the price of non-oil commodities relative to that of manufactures reached its lowest level in over 90 years.1 The longterm behavior of real commodity prices would thus appear to lend some support to the well-known Pre bisch-Singer hypothesis.2 This pattern in commodity prices has important practical implications for policymakers. For example, the presence of a negative trend in commodity prices implies continuously worsening terms of trade for many commodity-dependent countries, and further that efforts to stabilize the incomes of producers for an extended period of time may not be financially sustainable.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8198.
Date of creation: 1994
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989.
"On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices,"
Papers, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies
145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990. "On The Behavior of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Interacting cobweb markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 461-481, September.
- Hong Liang & C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 1999.
"How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?,"
IMF Working Papers
99/80, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 2.
- Daniel Cohen & Thibault Fally & Sébastien Villemot, 2007. "Commodity Funds: How To Fix Them?," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs, OECD Publishing 32, OECD Publishing.
- Sapsford, David & Singer, Hans, 1998. "The IMF, the world bank and commodity prices: A case of shifting sands?," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 1653-1660, September.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999.
"Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices,"
IMF Working Papers
99/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, .
"Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices,"
Borradores de Economia
521, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004734, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Peretto, Pietro F. & Valente, Simone, 2011. "Resources, innovation and growth in the global economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 387-399.
- Westerhoff, Frank & Wieland, Cristian, 2010. "A behavioral cobweb-like commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1136-1143, September.
- Cristian Wieland & Frank Westerhoff, 2004. "A behavioral cobweb model with heterogeneous speculators," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics 171, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bonilla, Eugenio Diaz, 2008. "Global macroeconomic developments and poverty:," IFPRI discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 766, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Ximena Chavarro & Eliana Rocío González, 2012. "Precios de bienes primarios e inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 712, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Plourde, André & Watkins, G. C., 1998. "Crude oil prices between 1985 and 1994: how volatile in relation to other commodities?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 245-262, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.