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Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution

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Author Info
J. Doyne Farmer () (Prediction Company)

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Abstract

In financial markets, an excess of buying tends to drive prices up, and an excess of selling tends to drive them down. This is called market impact. Based on a simplified model for market making, it is possible to derive a unique functional form for market impact. This can be used to formulate a non-equilibrium theory for price formation. Commonly used trading strategies, such as value investing, and trend following induce characteristic dynamics in the price. Although there is a tendency for self-fulfilling prophesies, this is not always the case; in particular, many value-investing strategies fail to make prices reflect values. When there is a diversity of perceived values, nonlinear strategies give rise to excess volatility. Many market phenomena such as trends and temporal correlations in volume and volatility have simple explanations. The theory is both simple and experimentally testable. Under this theory there is an emphasis on the interrelationships of strategies that makes it natural to regard a market as a financial ecology. A variety of examples show how diversity emerges automatically as new strategies exploit the inefficiencies of old strategies. This results in capital reallocations that evolve on longer time scales and cause apparent non-stationarities on shorter time scales. The drive toward market efficiency can be studied in the dynamical context of pattern evolution. The evolution of the capital of a strategy is analogous to the evolution of the population of a biological species. Several different arguments suggest that the time scale for market efficiency is years to decades.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 with number 651.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:651

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Postal: CEF99, Boston College, Department of Economics, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
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  1. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2000. "Power-laws in economics and finance: some ideas from physics," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500023, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. J. Doyne Farmer & Andrew W. Lo, 1999. "Frontiers of Finance: Evolution and Efficient Markets," Working Papers 99-06-039, Santa Fe Institute.
  3. David Goldbaum, 2000. "Profitability And Market Stability: Fundamentals And Technical Trading Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 85, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mikhail Anufriev & Giulio Bottazzi & Francesca Pancotto, 2004. "Price and Wealth Asymptotic Dynamics with CRRA Technical Trading Strategies," LEM Papers Series 2004/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  5. V. I. Yukalov & D. Sornette & E. P. Yukalova, 2007. "Nonlinear Dynamical Model of Regime Switching Between Conventions and Business Cycles," Quantitative Finance Papers nlin/0701014, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Andrew W. Lo & Emanuele Viola, 2009. "A Computational View of Market Efficiency," Quantitative Finance Papers 0908.4580, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcus G. Daniels & J. Doyne Farmer & Giulia Iori & Eric Smith, 2002. "Demand Storage, Market Liquidity, and Price Volatility," Working Papers 02-01-001, Santa Fe Institute.
  8. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Yang, J-H.S. & Satchell, S.E., 2003. "Endogenous Correlation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0321, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cars Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models: Two Simple Case Studies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-055/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. McCauley, Joseph l., 2004. "Thermodynamic analogies in economics and finance: instability of markets," MPRA Paper 2159, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  13. repec:att:wimass:192017 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Harald A. Benink & Jose Luis Gordillo & Juan Pablo Pardo & Christopher R. Stephens, 2004. "A Study of Neo-Austrian Economics using an Artificial Stock Market," Finance 0411038, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Paul Jefferies & Michael Hart & Neil Johnson & P.M. Hui, 2001. "From market games to real-world markets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  16. Thomas Schuster, 2003. "Meta-Communication and Market Dynamics. Reflexive Interactions of Financial Markets and the Mass Media," Finance 0307014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  17. J.-H. Steffi Yang & Satchell, S.E., 2002. "The Impact of Technical Analysis on Asset Price Dynamics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0219, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  18. Hommes, C.H.,, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agents Models: two simple examples, forthcoming In: Lines, M. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamical Systems in Economics, CISM Courses and Lectures, Springer, 2005, pp.131-164," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  19. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2005. "Importance of Positive Feedbacks and Over-confidence in a Self-Fulfilling Ising Model of Financial Markets," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0503607, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
  20. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, 2009. "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Quantitative Finance Papers 0905.0220, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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