A Better Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock and Exchange Rate Returns: Trend-GARCH
AbstractThe impact of short run price trending on the conditional volatility is tested empirically. A new family of conditionally heteroscedastic models with a trend-dependent conditional variance equation: The Trend-GARCH model is described. Modern microeconomic theory often suggests the connection between the past behaviour of time series, the subsequent reaction of market individuals, and thereon changes in the future characteristics of the time series. Results reveal important properties of these models, which are consistent with stylized facts found in financial data sets. They can also be employed for model identification, estimation, and testing. The empirical analysis supports the existence of trend effects. The Trend-GARCH model proves to be superior to alternative models such as EGARCH, AGARCH, TGARCH OR GARCH-in-Mean in replicating the leverage effect in the conditional variance, in fitting the news impact curve and in fitting the volatility estimates from high frequency data. In addition, we show that the leverage effect is dependent on the current trend, i.e. it differentiates between bullish and bearish markets. Furthermore, trend effects can account for a significant part of the long memory property of asset price volatilities.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.
Volume (Year): 13 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- M. Angeles Carnero, 2004. "Persistence and Kurtosis in GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(2), pages 319-342.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- repec:uba:hadfwe:techtrademonpol_2003-07 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lehar, Alfred & Scheicher, Martin & Schittenkopf, Christian, 2002. "GARCH vs. stochastic volatility: Option pricing and risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 323-345, March.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Pierre Giot, 2005. "Market risk models for intraday data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 309-324.
- Markku Lanne & Saikkonen Pentti, 2007.
"Modeling Conditional Skewness in Stock Returns,"
The European Journal of Finance,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 691-704.
- Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2005. "Technical trading, monetary policy, and exchange rate regimes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 281-302, February.
- Menkhoff, L., 1998. "The noise trading approach -- questionnaire evidence from foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 547-564, June.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.