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The impact of financial crises on the risk-return tradeoff and the leverage effect

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  • Bent Jesper Christensen

    ()
    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Morten Ørregaard Nielsen

    ()
    (Queen?s University and CREATES)

  • Jie Zhu

    ()
    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

We investigate the impact of financial crises on two fundamental features of stock returns, namely, the risk-return tradeoff and the leverage effect. We apply the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH-in-mean (FIEGARCH-M) model for daily stock return data, which includes both features and allows the co-existence of long memory in volatility and short memory in returns. We extend this model to allow the financial parameters governing the volatility-in-mean effect and the leverage effect to change during financial crises. An application to the daily U.S. stock index return series from 1926 through 2010 shows that both ?financial effects increase significantly during crises. Strikingly, the risk-return tradeoff is significantly positive only during financial crises, and insignificant during non-crisis periods. The leverage effect is negative throughout, but increases significantly by about 50% in magnitude during ?financial crises. No such changes are observed during NBER recessions, so in this sense ?financial crises are special. Applications to a number of major developed and emerging international stock markets confirm the increase in the leverage effect, whereas the international evidence on the risk-return tradeoff is mixed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2012-19.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 02 May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-19

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

Related research

Keywords: FIEGARCH-M; financial crises; financial leverage; international markets; long memory; risk-return tradeoff; stock returns; volatility feedback.;

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  1. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Jie Zhu, 2007. "Long Memory in Stock Market Volatility and the Volatility-in-Mean Effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," CREATES Research Papers 2007-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2010. "Stressed not Frozen: The Fed Funds Market in the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Changli He & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Parameterizing unconditional skewness in models for financial time series," CREATES Research Papers 2008-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Jun Yu, 2004. "On Leverage in a Stochastic Volatility Model," Working Papers 13-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
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  7. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "The Effect of Long Memory in Volatility on Stock Market Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 684-700, November.
  8. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  9. John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Anders Bredahl Kock & Laurent A.F. Callot, 2012. "Oracle Inequalities for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressions," CREATES Research Papers 2012-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  11. Peter M Robinson, 2001. "The Memory of Stochastic Volatility Models," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2001/410, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  12. Breidt, F. Jay & Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro, 1998. "The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 325-348.
  13. Matt P. Dziubinski & Stefano Grassi, 2012. "Heterogeneous Computing in Economics: A Simplified Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2012-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  14. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2011. "Stressed, Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1109-1139, 08.
  15. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  16. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  18. Anders Bredahl Kock, 2013. "Oracle inequalities for high-dimensional panel data models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
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