FIEGARCH-M and and International Crises: A Cross-Country Analysis
AbstractWe apply the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH with volatility-in-mean (FIEGARCH-M) model of Christensen, Nielsen & Zhu (2007) to estimate the risk premium after different crises occurred in major stock markets during the past two decades. The model allows keeping the long memory property in volatility and a filtered volatility-in-mean component is used as a proxy for the risk factor. The esti- mation results show that the 1987 stock market crash and September 11, 2001 attack have persistent effects on stock markets. A significant risk factor is found for both crises in most crisis-hit markets, and it is nonmonotic for different markets. Either volatility feedback or risk premium is a possible explanation for the risk factor. On the contrary, Asian financial crisis and other market-specific crises have no persistent impact on most markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2008-16.
Date of creation: 05 Mar 2008
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FIEGARCH-M; international stock market crisis; 1987 stock market crash; dotcom bubble; Asian crisis; 9/11 attack; country-specific crisis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-06-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2008-06-27 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-SEA-2008-06-27 (South East Asia)
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