A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation
AbstractThe paper investigates the emergence of complex market expectations (opinion dynamics) around nominal exchange rate adjustments using a macro-financial model of a small open economy featuring heterogeneous expectation formation (chartists and fundamentalists) and gradual adjustment processes in real and also to a certain degree in financial markets. The model shows among other things the mechanisms through which the first type of agents tends to destabilise the economy. Global stability can be ensured if opinions turn to fundamentalist behaviour far off the steady state. This interaction of expectations and population dynamics is bounding the – due to chartist behavior – potentially explosive real-financial market interactions, but can enforce irregular behavior within these bounds. The size of output and exchange rate fluctuations can be dampened by adding suitable policy measures to the dynamics of the private sector.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute of Empirical Economic Research in its series Working Papers with number 98.
Date of creation: 29 Jan 2014
Date of revision: 29 Jan 2014
Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics; Opinion Dynamics; Viability; Persistent and Irregular Fluctuations; Macroeconomic Policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2014-02-08 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2014-02-08 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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