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Expectations Driven Distortions in the Foreign Exchange Market

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  • Frank H. Westerhoff

Abstract

This paper explores the phenomenon of lasting deviations of the exchange rate from its fundamental value in the foreign exchange market. Motivated by empirical observations a chartists-fundamentalists model is developed in which boundedly rational agents repeatedly choose between technical and fundamental trading rules to determine their speculative investment positions. Crucial for the dynamics is how the traders perceive the fundamental exchange rate. This perception process is based on psychological evidence. Simulations give rise to bubbles but simultaneously display quite realistic exchange rate dynamics (unit roots in the exchange rates, fat tails for returns, and volatility clustering).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 48.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:48

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Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html
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Keywords: exchange rate theory; technical and fundamental trading rules; expectations and learning; market efficiency;

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References

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  1. William A. Brock & Blake D. LeBaron, 1995. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 4988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  3. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," NBER Working Papers 3243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
  6. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October.
  7. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  8. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
  9. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  10. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  11. Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "Expectation Driven Price Volatility in an Experimental Cobweb Economy," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  12. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & McMahon, Patrick C. & Ngama, Yerima L., 1993. "Testing for unit roots with very high frequency spot exchange rate data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 423-438.
  13. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November.
  14. Black, Fischer, 1986. " Noise," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 529-43, July.
  15. J. Doyne Farmer, 1998. "Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution," Research in Economics 98-12-117e, Santa Fe Institute.
  16. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
  17. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Min Zheng, 2009. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Paper Series 243, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2004. "Multiasset Market Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(05), pages 596-616, November.
  4. Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
  5. Stefan Reitz & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets - Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Kiel Working Papers 1706, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Murphy, Austin, 2008. "An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 108-133.
  7. Georges, Christophre, 2006. "Learning with misspecification in an artificial currency market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 70-84, May.
  8. Schmidt, Robert & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2004. "Sterilized Foreign Exchange Market Interventions in a Chartist-Fundamentalist Exchange Rate Model," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 50, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  9. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
  10. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  11. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
  12. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky & Michael Schröder, 2008. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence on the Chartist-Fundamentalist Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2502, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Ling-Yun He, 2010. "Is Price Behavior Scaling and Multiscaling in a Dealer Market? Perspectives from Multi-Agent Based Experiments," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 263-282, October.
  14. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.

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