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Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents

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  • Amilon, Henrik
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    Abstract

    Standard asset pricing models based on rational expectations and homogeneity have problems explaining the complex and volatile nature of financial markets. Recently, boundedly rational and heterogeneous agent models have been developed and simulated returns are found to exhibit various stylized facts, such as volatility clustering and fat tails. Here, we are interested in how well the proposed models can explain all the properties seen in real data, not just one or a few at a time. Hence, we do a proper estimation of some simple versions of such a model by the use of efficient method of moments and maximum likelihood and compare the results to real data and more traditional econometric models. We discover two main findings. First, the similarities with observed data found in earlier simulations rely crucially on a somewhat unrealistic modeling of the noise term. Second, when the stochastic is more properly introduced the models are still able to generate some stylized facts, but the fit is generally quite poor.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 342-362

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:342-362

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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    Cited by:
    1. Weihong Huang & Huanhuan Zheng & Wai-Mun Chia, 2013. "Asymmetric returns, gradual bubbles and sudden crashes," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 420-437, May.
    2. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Estimating behavioural heterogeneity under regime switching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 446-460.
    3. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2013. "Consistent Estimation of Agent-Based Models by Simulated Minimum Distance," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201335, University of Turin.
    5. H. Dewachter & R. Houssa & M. Lyrio & P.R. Kaltwasser, 2011. "Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Review of Business and Economic Literature, Intersentia, vol. 56(4), pages 454-472, December.
    6. Tiziana Assenza & William Brock & Cars Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def7, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    7. Franke, Reiner, 2010. "On the specification of noise in two agent-based asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1140-1152, June.
    8. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," BERG Working Paper Series 78, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    9. Ling-Yun He, 2010. "Is Price Behavior Scaling and Multiscaling in a Dealer Market? Perspectives from Multi-Agent Based Experiments," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 263-282, October.
    10. Youwei Li & Bas Donkers & Bertrand Melenberg, 2010. "Econometric analysis of microscopic simulation models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 1187-1201.
    11. Assenza, T. & Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 2012. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Amplification and Duration of Crises," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    12. Franke, Reiner, 2008. "Artificial Long Memory Effects in Two Agend-Based Asset Pricing Models," Economics Working Papers 2008,15, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    13. Lux, Thomas, 2012. "Estimation of an agent-based model of investor sentiment formation in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1284-1302.
    14. Li, Youwei & Hamill, Philip A. & Opong, Kwaku K., 2010. "Do benchmark African equity indices exhibit the stylized facts?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 71-97.
    15. Pataracchia, B., 2013. "Ambiguity aversion and heterogeneity in financial markets: An empirical and theoretical perspective," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5905989, Tilburg University.

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