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A flexible parametric GARCH model with an application to exchange rates

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Author Info
Kai-Li Wang (Department of International Trade, Tam Kang University, Taiwan)
Christopher Fawson (Department of Economics, 3530 Old Main Hill, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322)
Christopher B. Barrett (Department of Applied Economics and Management, 351 Warren Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801, USA)
James B. McDonald (Department of Economics, 130, FOB, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah 84602, USA)

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Abstract

Many asset prices, including exchange rates, exhibit periods of stability punctuated by infrequent, substantial, often one-sided adjustments. Statistically, this generates empirical distributions of exchange rate changes that exhibit high peaks, long tails, and skewness. This paper introduces a GARCH model, with a flexible parametric error distribution based on the exponential generalized beta (EGB) family of distributions. Applied to daily US dollar exchange rate data for six major currencies, evidence based on a comparison of actual and predicted higher-order moments and goodness-of-fit tests favours the GARCH-EGB2 model over more conventional GARCH-t and EGARCH-t model alternatives, particularly for exchange rate data characterized by skewness. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 521-536
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:4:p:521-536

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  1. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
    Other versions:
  2. Baillie, R.T. & Degennaro, R., 1988. "The Impact Of Delivery Terms On Stock Return Volatility," Papers 8804, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Kloek, Teun & van Dijk, Herman K., 1978. "Efficient estimation of income distribution parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 61-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Milhoj, Anders, 1987. "A Conditional Variance Model for Daily Deviations of an Exchange Rate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 99-103, January.
  8. McDonald, James B., 1991. "Parametric models for partially adaptive estimation with skewed and leptokurtic residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 273-278, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. McDonald, James B. & Xu, Yexiao J., 1995. "A generalization of the beta distribution with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 427-428, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. McDonald, James B, 1984. "Some Generalized Functions for the Size Distribution of Income," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 647-63, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Koedijk, Kees G. & Stork, Philip A. & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: The view from the tails," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 462-473, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  18. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hsieh, David A., 1988. "The statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates: 1974-1983," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 129-145, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Partha Deb, 1996. "Finite sample properties of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators of egarch models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 51-68. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kai-Li Wang & Mei-Ling Chen, 2007. "The dynamics in the spot, futures, and call options with basis asymmetries: an intraday analysis in a generalized multivariate GARCH-M MSKST framework," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 371-394, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Yi-Ting Chen, 2008. "A unified approach to standardized-residuals-based correlation tests for GARCH-type models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 111-133. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luc, BAUWENS & Arie, PREMINGER & Jeroen, ROMBOUTS, 2006. "Regime switching GARCH models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Henrik Amilon, 2003. "Estimation of an Adaptive Stock Market Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Research Paper Series 107, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  5. C. James Hueng & Ruey Yau, 2006. "Investor preferences and portfolio selection: is diversification an appropriate strategy?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 255-271, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Emese Lazar & Carol Alexander, 2006. "Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 307-336. [Downloadable!]
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