Dynamics of Beliefs and Learning Under aL Processes - The Heterogeneous Case
AbstractThis paper studies a class of models in which agents' expectations influence the actual dynamics while the expectations themselves are the outcome of some recursive processes with bounded memory. Under the assumptions of heterogeneous expectations (or beliefs) and that the agents update their expectations by recursive L- and general aL-processes, the dynamics of the resulting expectations and learning schemes are analyzed. It is shown that the dynamics of the system, including stability, instability and bifurcation, are affected differently by the recursive processes. The cobweb model with a simple heterogeneous expectation scheme is employed as an example to illustrate the stability results, the various types of bifurcations and the routes to complicated price dynamics. In particular, the double edged effect of heterogeneity on the dynamics of the model is demonstrated.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 55.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2001
Date of revision:
heterogeneous beliefs; recursive L-process; general aL-process; stability; instability; bifucation; cobweb model;
Other versions of this item:
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Dynamics of beliefs and learning under aL-processes -- the heterogeneous case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 503-531, January.
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