IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/brd/wpaper/43.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation Derivatives Under Inflation Target Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Mordecai Avriel

    (Technion-Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Jens Hilscher

    (International Business School, Brandeis University)

  • Alon Raviv

    (International Business School, Brandeis University)

Abstract

Inflation targeting -- the central bank practice of attempting to keep inflation levels within fixed bounds around a quantitative target -- has been adopted by more than twenty economies. Such practice has an important impact on the stochastic nature of inflation and, consequently, on the pricing of inflation derivatives. We develop a flexible model of inflation targeting in which the central bank's intervention to steer inflation towards the target depends on past deviations and the policymaker's ability or will to enforce the target. We use our model to price inflation derivatives and demonstrate the impact of inflation targeting on derivative pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Mordecai Avriel & Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv, 2012. "Inflation Derivatives Under Inflation Target Regimes," Working Papers 43, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:43
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/economics/RePEc/brd/doc/Brandeis_WP43.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Bernard Dumas & Lars Peter Jennergren & Bertil Näslund, 1992. "Currency option pricing in credible target zones," Working Papers hal-00611601, HAL.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    4. Alexander Van Haastrecht & Antoon Pelsser, 2010. "Efficient, Almost Exact Simulation Of The Heston Stochastic Volatility Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-43.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. Mr. Marcel Peter & Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan, 2006. "Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design, and Communications," IMF Working Papers 2006/278, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    8. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    9. Bhansali, Vineer & Dorsten, Matthew P. & Wise, Mark B., 2009. "Asymmetric monetary policy and the yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1408-1425, December.
    10. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    11. Alexander van Haastrecht & Antoon Pelsser, 2011. "Generic pricing of FX, inflation and stock options under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 665-691.
    12. Nabyl Belgrade & Eric Benhamou & Etienne Koehler, 2004. "A market model for inflation," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04050, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    13. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    14. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. John C. Williams, 2009. "The risk of deflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar27.
    16. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    17. Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1994. "Target zone modelling and estimation for European Monetary System exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 385-420, July.
    18. Kristian Stegenborg Larsen & Michael Sørensen, 2007. "Diffusion Models For Exchange Rates In A Target Zone," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 285-306, April.
    19. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    20. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    21. Christian Kahl & Peter Jackel, 2006. "Fast strong approximation Monte Carlo schemes for stochastic volatility models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 513-536.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Yizhou & Xue, Cheng, 2021. "An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Ekvall, Niklas & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1997. "Currency option pricing with mean reversion and uncovered interest parity: A revision of the Garman-Kohlhagen model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 41-59, July.
    3. Ako Doffou & Jimmy E. Hilliard, 2001. "Pricing Currency Options Under Stochastic Interest Rates And Jump-Diffusion Processes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 565-585, December.
    4. Mondher Bellalah, 2009. "Derivatives, Risk Management & Value," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7175, January.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos, 2015. "Derivative Security Pricing," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-662-45906-5, July-Dece.
    6. Sanjay K. Nawalkha & Xiaoyang Zhuo, 2022. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Contingent Claim Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2853-2906, October.
    7. Peter P. Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2017. "FX options in target zones," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1486, October.
    8. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    9. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011.
    10. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    11. Kristensen, Dennis, 2008. "Estimation of partial differential equations with applications in finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 392-408, June.
    12. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    13. Olivier Guéant, 2016. "The Financial Mathematics of Market Liquidity: From Optimal Execution to Market Making," Post-Print hal-01393136, HAL.
    14. Qian Li & Li Wang, 2023. "Option pricing under jump diffusion model," Papers 2305.10678, arXiv.org.
    15. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2007.
    16. Stephane Crepey, 2004. "Delta-hedging vega risk?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 559-579.
    17. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 25, July-Dece.
    18. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "The Effectiveness of the FX Market Interventions of the Bundesbank During the Louvre Period: An Options-Based Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 971, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5, July-Dece.
    20. Giandomenico, Rossano, 2015. "Financial Methods: A Quantitative Approach," MPRA Paper 71919, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation derivatives; Inflation targeting; Target zones; Option pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Andrea Luna (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gsbraus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.