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Financial Contagion and Investor "Learning": An Empirical Investigation

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  • Ms. Ritu Basu

Abstract

There have been several episodes of financial market "contagion" in the 1990s. Is contagion driven by herd behavior? Does it reflect fundamental economic linkages between countries? Or are episodes of contagion driven by investor learning and risk reassessment about a select group of countries? We pursue these questions by studying the persistence in the spillover of shocks following the bond market developments in Hong Kong SAR in 1997. Our results suggest that this contagion, at least for a few countries, was a consequence of adverse sentiment shifts arising from investor learning and was not merely driven by changes in fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Ritu Basu, 2002. "Financial Contagion and Investor "Learning": An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2002/218, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/218
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    Cited by:

    1. da Gama Silva, Paulo Vitor Jordão & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & Gomes, Leonardo Lima, 2019. "Herding behavior and contagion in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 41-50.
    2. Gupta, Rakesh & Guidi, Francesco, 2012. "Cointegration relationship and time varying co-movements among Indian and Asian developed stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 10-22.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    4. Guidi, Francesco & Ugur, Mehmet, 2012. "Are South East Europe stock markets integrated with regional and global stock markets?," MPRA Paper 44133, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2012.
    5. Mollah, Sabur & Quoreshi, A.M.M. Shahiduzzaman & Zafirov, Goran, 2016. "Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 151-167.
    6. Apostolakis, George, 2016. "Spreading crisis: Evidence of financial stress spillovers in the Asian financial markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 542-551.
    7. Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2017. "Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 368-380.
    8. Patrick Bayer & Kyle Mangum & James W. Roberts, 2021. "Speculative Fever: Investor Contagion in the Housing Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 609-651, February.
    9. Matteo Cominetta, 2016. "Financial Contagion: A New Perspective (and a New Test)," Working Papers 12, European Stability Mechanism.
    10. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation Analysis of Stock Market Contagion: Evidence from the 2007-2010 Financial Crises," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 637-661.
    11. Mobarek, Asma & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Mollah, Sabur & Hou, Ai Jun, 2016. "Determinants of time varying co-movements among international stock markets during crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-11.
    12. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Seewon, 2013. "Transmission of the global financial crisis to Korea," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 339-353.
    13. Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
    14. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose & Rojas-Espinosa, Wilmer, 2018. "Detecting exchange rate contagion in Asian exchange rate markets using asymmetric DDC-GARCH and R-vine copulas," MPRA Paper 88578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Thomas C. Chiang & Lanjun Lao & Qingfeng Xue, 2016. "Comovements between Chinese and global stock markets: evidence from aggregate and sectoral data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1003-1042, November.
    16. Hwang, Eugene & Min, Hong-Ghi & Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2013. "Determinants of stock market comovements among US and emerging economies during the US financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 338-348.
    17. Martinez, Lisana B. & Terceño, Antonio & Teruel, Mercedes, 2013. "Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 60-75.
    18. Muhammad Owais Qarni & Gulzar Saqib, 2018. "Return and Volatility Spillover across stock markets of China and its Major Trading Partners: Evidence from Shanghai Stock Exchange Crash," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, September.
    19. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Rojas-Espinosa, Wilmer, 2019. "Detecting contagion in Asian exchange rate markets using asymmetric DCC-GARCH and R-vine copulas," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).

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