IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v47y2016i4d10.1007_s11156-015-0529-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comovements between Chinese and global stock markets: evidence from aggregate and sectoral data

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas C. Chiang

    (Drexel University)

  • Lanjun Lao

    (Fudan University)

  • Qingfeng Xue

    (CES Finance Holding Co. Ltd.)

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic correlations between Chinese stock returns and global markets at both the market and sectoral levels. Statistics suggest that stock-return correlations across markets are time-varying and display structural breaks. An upward shift in stock return correlations is associated with China’s adoption of a higher degree of financial liberalization. The evidence indicates that the stock returns of the financial sector exhibit the highest correlation across countries among 10 sectors. Low correlations are present in the Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities sectors. The correlations are closely tied to geographic location: the correlation with Hong Kong is the highest, followed by South Korea, Japan, Europe and the US. The time-series stock-return correlations are positively correlated with the conditional variance and variance premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas C. Chiang & Lanjun Lao & Qingfeng Xue, 2016. "Comovements between Chinese and global stock markets: evidence from aggregate and sectoral data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1003-1042, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:47:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-015-0529-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-015-0529-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-015-0529-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-015-0529-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:lan:wpaper:2594 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yu, Ip-Wing & Fung, Kang-Por & Tam, Chi-Sang, 2010. "Assessing financial market integration in Asia - Equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2874-2885, December.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    4. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    6. Wu, Guojun, 2001. "The Determinants of Asymmetric Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 837-859.
    7. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    8. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    9. d'Addona, Stefano & Kind, Axel H., 2006. "International stock-bond correlations in a simple affine asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2747-2765, October.
    10. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    11. Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2014. "Towards strong and stable capital markets in emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Long-term finance: can emerging capital markets help?, volume 75, pages 13-20, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    13. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2011. "Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 92-106, February.
    14. Engle, Robert F. & White (the late), Halbert (ed.), 1999. "Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: Festschrift in Honour of Clive W. J. Granger," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296836.
    15. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    16. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    17. Colacito, Riccardo & Engle, Robert F. & Ghysels, Eric, 2011. "A component model for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 45-59, September.
    18. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2010. "An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1911-1921, August.
    19. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    20. Lahrech, Abdelmounaim & Sylwester, Kevin, 2011. "U.S. and Latin American stock market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1341-1357.
    21. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    22. repec:lan:wpaper:2452 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
    24. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    25. repec:lan:wpaper:2371 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    27. Kate Phylaktis & Lichuan Xia, 2009. "Equity Market Comovement and Contagion: A Sectoral Perspective," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 381-409, June.
    28. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    29. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    30. Rene M. Stulz, 1999. "Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 7021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    32. Thomas Chiang & Jiandong Li & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2015. "Dynamic stock–bond return correlations and financial market uncertainty," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 59-88, July.
    33. Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold & Dimitrios Vougas, 1998. "Unit roots and smooth transitions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 83-97, January.
    34. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
    35. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    36. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    38. Ms. Ritu Basu, 2002. "Financial Contagion and Investor "Learning": An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2002/218, International Monetary Fund.
    39. S Zhang & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Linkages between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock indices," Working Papers 599248, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    40. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
    41. Hong Li, 2007. "International linkages of the Chinese stock exchanges: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 285-297.
    42. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    43. Baur, Dirk G. & Fry, Renée A., 2009. "Multivariate contagion and interdependence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 353-366, September.
    44. Tan, Lin & Chiang, Thomas C. & Mason, Joseph R. & Nelling, Edward, 2008. "Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: An examination of A and B shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 61-77, January.
    45. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    46. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2005. "Volatility linkages across three major equity markets: A financial arbitrage approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 413-439, April.
    47. Qiao, Zhuo & Chiang, Thomas C. & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Long-run equilibrium, short-term adjustment, and spillover effects across Chinese segmented stock markets and the Hong Kong stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 425-437, December.
    48. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa02-2, March.
    49. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    50. Gregory C. Chow & Caroline C. Lawler, 2003. "A Time Series Analysis of the Shanghai and New York Stock Price Indices," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 17-35, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ya Qian & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, 2017. "Industry Interdependency Dynamics in a Network Context," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-012, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Wan, Li & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Matousek, Roman, 2021. "Dynamic linkage between the Chinese and global stock markets: A normal mixture approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Jian Ni & Yue Xu, 2023. "Forecasting the Dynamic Correlation of Stock Indices Based on Deep Learning Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 35-55, January.
    4. Luke Lin & Wen-Yuan Lin, 2018. "Does the major market influence transfer? Alternative effect on Asian stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1169-1200, May.
    5. Burdekin, Richard C. K & Tao, Ran, 2021. "From Shanghai to Sydney: Chinese stock market influences on Australia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    6. Li Li Eng & Xi Tian & T. Robert Yu, 2018. "Financial Statement Analysis: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-32, December.
    7. Chong, Oiping & Bany- Ariffin, A.N. & Matemilola, Bolaji Tunde & McGowan, C.B., 2020. "Can China’s cross-sectional dispersion of stock returns influence the herding behaviour of traders in other local markets and China’s trading partners?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Shi, Yujie, 2022. "What influences stock market co-movements between China and its Asia-Pacific trading partners after the Global Financial Crisis?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Sema Bayraktar & Thomas C. Chiang, 2017. "Comovements of Stock Markets between Turkey and Global Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 250-275, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Chiang & Jiandong Li & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2015. "Dynamic stock–bond return correlations and financial market uncertainty," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 59-88, July.
    2. Mobarek, Asma & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Mollah, Sabur & Hou, Ai Jun, 2016. "Determinants of time varying co-movements among international stock markets during crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Thomas C. Chiang, 2020. "Risk and Policy Uncertainty on Stock–Bond Return Correlations: Evidence from the US Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    5. Sercan Demiralay & Veysel Ulusoy, 2017. "How Has the Behavior of Cross-Market Correlations Altered During Financial and Debt Crises?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(6), pages 765-794, December.
    6. Cai, Charlie X. & Mobarek, Asma & Zhang, Qi, 2017. "International stock market leadership and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 150-162.
    7. Sema Bayraktar & Thomas C. Chiang, 2017. "Comovements of Stock Markets between Turkey and Global Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 250-275, June.
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    9. Ahmad, Wasim & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 209-225.
    10. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2016. "International contagion through financial versus non-financial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-163.
    11. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios, 2018. "Sectoral dynamics of financial contagion in Europe - The cases of the recent crises episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 222-239.
    12. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2016. "Stock returns and economic forces—An empirical investigation of Chinese markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 45-65.
    13. Pappas, Vasileios & Ingham, Hilary & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerry, 2016. "Will the crisis “tear us apart”? Evidence from the EU," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-360.
    14. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    15. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2014. "Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 161-177.
    16. Wasim Ahmad & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2014. "The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(3), pages 325-352, July.
    17. Skintzi, Vasiliki D., 2019. "Determinants of stock-bond market comovement in the Eurozone under model uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-28.
    18. M. Fatih Oztek & Nadir Ocal, 2012. "Integration of China Stock Markets with International Stock Markets: An application of Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation with Double Transition Functions," ERC Working Papers 1209, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2012.
    19. Mollah, Sabur & Quoreshi, A.M.M. Shahiduzzaman & Zafirov, Goran, 2016. "Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 151-167.
    20. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market linkages; Smooth transition; Variance premium; Conditional variance; DCC model; Comovements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:47:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-015-0529-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.