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Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices

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Abstract

Efficient markets models assert that the price of each asset is equal to the optimal forecast of its ex-post or fundamental value. These models do not imply, however, that the covariance between two asset prices is given by the covariance between the ex-post values they respectively forecast: these two covariances can even have opposite signs. However, it is possible to place bounds on the covariance between asset prices given the covariance matrix of ex-post values. We present such bounds for both covariances and correlations and show how such bounds can be tightened using information beyond the covariance matrix of ex-post values. The methods are used to examine whether the historical correlation between the U.S. and U.K. stock markets 1919-1989 is warranted. The bounds on the warranted covariance are very wide and include the actual correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea E. Beltratti & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 970, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:970
    Note: CFP 859.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1990. "Do Stock Prices Move Together Too Much?," NBER Working Papers 3324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1989. " Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 719-729, July.
    3. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    4. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    5. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    8. Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 719-729, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
    2. Shiller, Robert J., 1995. "Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 119-152.
    3. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
    4. Tsutsui, Yoshiro & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2004. "Are international portfolio adjustments a cause of comovements in stock prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 463-478, September.
    5. J. Bradford De Long & Richard Grossman, 1992. "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _133, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    6. Lund, Jesper & Engsted, Tom, 1996. "GMM and present value tests of the C-CAPM: evidence from the Danish, German, Swedish and UK stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 497-521, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; stock market; asset pricing; efficient markets; information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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