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Are U.K. Stock Prices Excessively Volatile? Trading Rules and Variance Bounds Tests

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  • Bulkley, George
  • Tonks, Ian

Abstract

The authors apply the original variance bounds tests to the present value model for the U.K. stock market and amend these tests to take account of revisions in the model's parameters. They show that variance bounds tests that correct for this are no longer violated. However, they claim there is excess volatility if agents, restricted to using only current information to compute a trading rule, could make excess profits. They show that a trading rule exists which yields, in the long run, more than twice the wealth from buying than holding a representative market portfolio. Copyright 1989 by Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 99 (1989)
Issue (Month): 398 (December)
Pages: 1083-98

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:99:y:1989:i:398:p:1083-98

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Cited by:
  1. Diks, C.G.H. & Dindo, P.D.E., 2006. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  2. Bulkley, George & Taylor, Nick, 1996. "A cross-section test of the present value model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 295-306, February.
  3. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
  4. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2011. "Do Mean Reverting based trading strategies outperform Buy and Hold?," Working Papers 1113, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
  5. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  6. Eugene N. White & Peter Rappoport, 1994. "The New York Stock Market in the 1920s and 1930s: Did Stock Prices Move Together Too Much?," NBER Working Papers 4627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2009. "Exploiting price misalignements," MPRA Paper 27147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. J. Bradford De Long & Richard Grossman, 1992. "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _133, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  9. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & J{\o}rgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2013. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Papers 1311.4274, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
  10. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00983051, HAL.

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