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Commodity futures markets: a survey

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Author Info

  • Carter, Colin A.

Abstract

This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on commodity futures markets. It is argued that modern studies have focused primarily on technical questions, with insufficient economic content. More research needs to be directed towards understanding fundamental economic issues such as why so few farmers hedge, the impacts of government farm programs on commodity futures, and the market impacts of commodity pools. The literature has failed to explain the prevalence of inverted markets in grains and oilseeds, and there is unexplainable price volatility in markets such as hogs and orange juice.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117044
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:117044

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Related research

Keywords: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty;

References

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  1. Cargill, Thomas F & Rausser, Gordon C, 1975. "Temporal Price Behavior in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1043-53, September.
  2. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), April.
  3. M. T. Allen & C. K. Ma & R. D. Pace, 1994. "Over-Reactions In Us Agricultural Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 240-251.
  4. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), July.
  5. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Schmitz, Andrew, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 317-28, March.
  6. Brennan, Donna & Williams, Jeffrey & Wright, Brian D, 1997. "Convenience Yield without the Convenience: A Spatial-Temporal Interpretation of Storage under Backwardation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1009-22, July.
  7. Bruce Bjornson & Colin A. Carter, 1997. "New Evidence on Agricultural Commodity Return Performance under Time-Varying Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(3), pages 918-930.
  8. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1992. "Time-varying risk premia and forecastable returns in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 169-193, October.
  9. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
  10. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67.
  11. STEVEN C. BLANK & COLIN A. CARTER & JEFFREY McDONALD, 1997. "Is The Market Failing Agricultural Producers Who Wish To Manage Risks?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(3), pages 103-112, 07.
  12. Cootner, Paul H., 1967. "Speculation and Hedging," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute.
  13. Baur, Robert F & Orazem, Peter F, 1994. " The Rationality and Price Effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts of Oranges," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 681-95, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(01), April.
  2. Chambers, Robert G., 2006. "Some Empirical Implications of State-Contingent Production Models," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 137789, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  3. Rocha, Waldemar Antonio da & Caldarelli, Carlos Eduardo, 2010. "The Dynamic Hedging Effectiveness For Soybean Farmers Of Mato Grosso With Futures Contracts Of Bm&F," Organizacoes Rurais e Agroindustriais/Rural and Agro-Industrial Organizations, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Departamento de Administracao e Economia, vol. 12(1).
  4. Torro, Hipolit, 2009. "Assessing the influence of spot price predictability on electricity futures hedging," MPRA Paper 18892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Survey," Staff Papers 121140, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  6. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2007. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," NBER Working Papers 13249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2010. "Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices," Working Paper Series rwp10-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  8. Pannell, David J. & Hailu, Getu & Weersink, Alfons & Burt, Amanda, 2007. "More Reasons Why Farmers Have So Little Interest in Futures Markets," Working Papers 9232, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  9. Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2008. "On Term Structure Models of Commodity Futures Prices and the Kaldor-Working Hypothesis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37608, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  10. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2014. "Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 129-155.
  11. Doroudian, Ali & Vercammen, James, 2012. "First and Second Order Impacts of Speculation on Commodity Price Volatility," Working Papers 126947, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
  12. Aulerich, Nicole M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Nelson, Carl H., 2007. "The Impact of Measurement Error on Estimates of the Price Reaction to USDA Crop Reports," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37579, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  13. Garcia, Philip & Nelson, Carl H., 2003. "Engaging Students In Research: The Use Of Structured Professional Dialogue," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21894, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  14. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.

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