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Causality In Futures Markets Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Bryant, Henry L.
Bessler, David A.
Haigh, Michael S.
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This research investigates various unresolved issues regarding futures markets, using formal methods appropriate for inferring causal relationships from observational data when some relevant quantities are hidden. We find no evidence supporting the generalized version of KeynesÂs theory of normal backwardation. We find no evidence supporting theories that predict that the level of activity of speculators or uninformed traders affects the level of price volatility, either positively or negatively. Our evidence strongly supports the mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH) that trading volume and price volatility have one or more latent common causes, resulting in their positive correlation.
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Paper provided by University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics in its series Working Papers with number
28574.
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Date of creation: 2003Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:umdrwp:28574Contact details of provider: Phone: 301-405-1290 Fax: 301-314-9032 Web page: http://www.arec.umd.edu/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Marketing ; Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976.
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Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992.
"Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets ,"
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Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004.
"Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs ,"
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[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Haigh, Michael S. & Bessler, David A., 2002.
"Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs ,"
2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri
19057, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
[Downloadable!] Haigh, Michael S. & Bessler, David A., 2002.
"Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs ,"
Working Papers
28588, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2007.
"The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns ,"
NBER Working Papers
13249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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