This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Causality In Futures Markets

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Bryant, Henry L.
Bessler, David A.
Haigh, Michael S.

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This research investigates various unresolved issues regarding futures markets, using formal methods appropriate for inferring causal relationships from observational data when some relevant quantities are hidden. We find no evidence supporting the generalized version of Keynes’s theory of normal backwardation. We find no evidence supporting theories that predict that the level of activity of speculators or uninformed traders affects the level of price volatility, either positively or negatively. Our evidence strongly supports the mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH) that trading volume and price volatility have one or more latent common causes, resulting in their positive correlation.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28574
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics in its series Working Papers with number 28574.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:umdrwp:28574

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 301-405-1290
Fax: 301-314-9032
Web page: http://www.arec.umd.edu/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (AgEcon Search).

Related research
Keywords: Marketing;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-21, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David Hirshleifer, 1988. "Residual Risk, Trading Costs, and Commodity Futures Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 173-193. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hirshleifer, David, 1990. "Hedging Pressure and Futures Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 411-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Norman R. Swanson & C. W.J. Granger, 1992. "Impulse Response Functions Based on a Causal Approach to Residual Orthogonalizaton in Vector Autoregressions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-50, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  10. Chang, Eric C, 1985. " Returns to Speculators and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 193-208, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hartzmark, Michael L, 1987. "Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1292-1306, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March. [Downloadable!]
  14. Carter, Colin A & Rausser, Gordon C & Schmitz, Andrew, 1983. "Efficient Asset Portfolios and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 319-31, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1098, October. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2007. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," NBER Working Papers 13249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? A tutorial is available.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.