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Information Flow, Trading Activity and Commodity Futures Volatility

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  • Adam E. Clements
  • Neda Todorova

Abstract

Based on unique news data relating to gold and crude oil, we investigate how news volume and sentiment, shocks in trading activity, market depth and trader positions unrelated to information flow covary with realized volatility. Positive shocks to the rate of news arrival, and negative shocks to news sentiment exhibit the largest effects. After controlling for the level of news flow and cross‐correlations, net trader positions play only a minor role. These findings are at odds with those of [Wang (2002a). The Journal of Futures Markets, 22, 427–450; Wang (2002b). The Financial Review, 37, 295–316], but are consistent with the previous literature which doesn't find a strong link between volatility and trader positions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:88–104, 2016

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  • Adam E. Clements & Neda Todorova, 2016. "Information Flow, Trading Activity and Commodity Futures Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 88-104, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:36:y:2016:i:1:p:88-104
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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2017. "Does investor attention matter? The attention-return relation in gold futures market," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Füss, Roland & Grabellus, Markus & Mager, Ferdinand & Stein, Michael, 2018. "Something in the air: Information density, news surprises, and price jumps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 50-75.
    3. Katherine B. Ensor & Yu Han & Barbara Ostdiek & Stuart M. Turnbull, 0. "Dynamic jump intensities and news arrival in oil futures markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-34.
    4. Gong, Xu & Wen, Fenghua & Xia, X.H. & Huang, Jianbai & Pan, Bin, 2017. "Investigating the risk-return trade-off for crude oil futures using high-frequency data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 152-161.
    5. Tom Marty & Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn, 2020. "News media analytics in finance: a survey," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1385-1434, June.
    6. Shimeng Shi, 2022. "Bitcoin futures risk premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2190-2217, December.
    7. Todorova, Neda & Clements, Adam E., 2018. "The volatility-volume relationship in the LME futures market for industrial metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 111-124.
    8. Xu Gong & Keqin Guan & Qiyang Chen, 2022. "The role of textual analysis in oil futures price forecasting based on machine learning approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1987-2017, October.
    9. Hoang‐Long Phan & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2020. "The time‐to‐maturity pattern of futures price sensitivity to news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 126-144, January.
    10. Durand, Robert B. & Khuu, Joyce & Smales, Lee A., 2023. "Lost in translation. When sentiment metrics for one market are derived from two different languages," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    11. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2017. "The impact of foreign equity flows on market volatility during politically tranquil and turbulent times: The Egyptian experience," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 61-77.
    12. Katherine B. Ensor & Yu Han & Barbara Ostdiek & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2020. "Dynamic jump intensities and news arrival in oil futures markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 292-325, July.

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